The New York Yankees will look to even the latest Subway Series when they battle the New York Mets on Saturday afternoon. The Mets earned a 6-5 win on Friday. The Yankees are expected to send left-hander Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.95 ERA) to the mound, while the Mets will counter with right-hander Frankie Montas Jr. (0-1, 6.00 ERA).
First pitch from Citi Field in New York is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. The Yankees are the -150 favorites (risk $150 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Mets odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets the +123 underdog (risk $100 to win $123). The over/under for total runs scored is 9. The Mets have won seven of the past 10 meetings with the Yankees.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 15 of the 2025 MLB season on a profitable 39-30 run on top-rated MLB money-line betting picks. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps, or new users taking advantage of the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code could have seen strong returns.
Here are the model’s best bets for Yankees vs. Mets (odds subject to change):
- Yankees to win (-150)
- Mets run line +1.5 (-128)
- Aaron Judge, Yankees, over 1.5 total bases (-135)
Yankees to win (-150)
The Yankees will be out to snap their five-game losing streak as they try to avoid tying their longest losing stretch of the season. Both teams have struggled of late, as the Mets have dropped four of their last seven games. Rodon has won eight of his past 10 decisions this season and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts.
The model has simulated the game 10,000 times. It has a simulation average money-line probability of nearly 60% of the time, making it the better value at these odds
Mets run line +1.5 (-128)
Over the past two seasons, the Mets have won six of eight meetings with the Yankees, including all three meetings at Citi Field. The Mets also have the best home record in MLB, going 31-13. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 22-22 on the road in 2025.
The model has simulated the game 10,000 times. It suggests the Mets will be able to cover the run line, and has them winning the game by an average score of 5.2 to 4.2, with the Mets covering nearly 60% of the time, making it the better value at these odds.
If you want even more MLB picks, SportsLine’s top MLB expert, Matt Severance, is heating up. Get his best bets for Saturday, all from the expert who is 174-104 on his last 278 MLB picks (+1199).
Aaron Judge, Yankees, over 1.5 total bases (-135)
Judge has been on fire of late. He has registered hits in five of the last six games, including four multi-hit performances during that stretch. In Friday’s loss to the Mets, he was 2-for-4 with a home run. He was 3-for-4 with a double, home run and three RBI. He was 2-for-4 with two homers and four RBI in a 12-5 win over the Athletics on Sunday.
The model is projecting 2.5 total bases for Judge, and gives this MLB prop a 5-star rating. SportsLine has an edge of 1.0 based on the projection of 2.5 and the consensus line of 1.5.
