How many of you are familiar with the Norman Rockwell meme?
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This picture has been used all over the internet as a way for people to voice their sometimes unpopular opinions about a subject. It insinuates that your take may be controversial, but you stand behind it.
I’ll be calling on one of our Four Freedoms — the very ideals Rockwell and Franklin Roosevelt yearned for — to back up a take on Texas Football’s red zone woes.
It wasn’t Steve Sarkisian’s fault.
Sort of.
In a multi-season view, Sarkisian has definitely had his share of red zone blunders and miscalls. Many of us will never forget the goal-line sequence against Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl semifinals. But what I’m referring to is a singular instance of failure in the red area: last Saturday against Ohio State.
Strictly on a numbers basis, Texas had 10 red zone plays on Saturday that earned a 40% success rate, 2.6 yards per play and -10.95 EPA/Play. A 40% success isn’t terrible, 2.6 yards per play is understandable near the goal line, but almost 11 points left on the board? That is unconscionable.
With zero points coming from two red zone trips, someone ought to be blamed, right? Let’s take a look.
The first red zone drive came on Texas’ first possession of the second half. The offense was humming, with the legs of Arch Manning, CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner all guiding a drive down to the OSU 20.
From there, Texas ran two plays to get into 1st and goal.
First play: a read option RPO bubble that works to perfection. OSU is caught with eight players biting at the Baxter handoff and Manning is free. One could argue he should keep this ball, but it’s a great job by DeAndre Moore Jr. to get to 2nd and 1. Really good call from Sark, who knows OSU needs to cheat to stop the run at this point.
Then, Sark gives Arch the option to find a dig route toward the pylon but it’s well covered, so he finds Daylan McCutcheon for an easy first.
One play later, Manning finds five yards on a designed QB power. He hits the correct hole and follows the right blocks to cut down the yardage needed to score. Texas is now 3/3 on success rate with 16 yards. It’s been good so far from everyone involved.
Play four is the big mistake, but it’s not from the play-caller.
These are videos.
Everything works to perfection from a pre-snap standpoint. Wisner’s motion to the field side pulls the linebacker and creates a giant mismatch. Texas has four blockers to OSU’s four defenders and Manning has the ball going downhill. It’s a great play call; all Manning has to do is follow his pulling center for a walk-in touchdown.
But he doesn’t. Instead, Manning jumps inside and into traffic for a one yard gain, completely ignoring Cole Hutson‘s block booting to the outside. On one hand, Connor Stroh gets absolutely zero push at the LOS here. That maybe scrambled Manning’s mind a bit. Still, I’m very confident that if Manning just runs behind Hutson, who only needs to block 195-pound Davison Igbinosun, Texas ties the game.
We know what happens from here. Sark calls a gap run to Baxter that looks pretty good, but Trevor Goosby and Hutson get manhandled by Ohio State defensive linemen. The all-22 shows some pretty woeful reps from both, as Baxter would’ve had a crease if even one opens up the gap more. Baxter made a great effort to almost get in.
Last is the QB sneak. By all accounts, this is a TERRIBLE call from Sark. Texas can’t overpower the Buckeyes there. If you want to maximize Arch in goal to go, spread out your offense and force a DB to beat him 1-on-1 at the goal line.
Now, if you want that sneak call to override everything before that, I understand. But Sark dialed up four straight great calls that should’ve turned into a touchdown. All of Manning, Sark, Goosby and Hutson should take some of the blame here, but Manning had no reason not to score the first touchdown of the game on 2nd and goal at the four.
Onto the fourth quarter, where Texas has driven down to the OSU 16, now down 14-0. With 9:30 left on the clock, Texas pretty much has to score a touchdown here. At this point, this had maybe been Manning’s best drive of the game, and Texas was moving on this OSU D.
Play one is a standard QB run play that should’ve gotten more yards. I don’t know if he was winded from the TE screen before, but Jack Endries completely whiffs on LB Arvell Reese. Manning probably gets another two yards at least on the keeper if it’s just a safety tackling him and not two players.
On play two, Arch does a great job of snapping the ball with the OSU defense confused and gives Wisner a good chance to hit a hole and get the first. Unfortunately, OSU EDGE Caden Curry puts a nasty swim move on Stroh, who never got a hold of him, stopping Wisner for a gain of just three. Two straight blocking mistakes in the run game, Texas should’ve already had a first.
But 3rd and 3 and the play afterwards are where we really see Manning fail. Third down is really well set up from Sark. Under center, out of 12 personnel, Wisner kicks out to run a wheel route that is covered. Manning’s first read is gone, so it’s pure mesh from here.
Everything else breaks the way you want it. The pass blocking holds strong, and two underneath routes are open. Spencer Shannon probably has a touchdown, but finding Ryan Wingo isn’t bad there either. If it’s on the money, it moves the chains and Texas has four downs to get six. Instead, Manning sidearms it into Wingo’s ankles, and it’s fourth down.
Guess what?
Sark makes an even better play call on 4th and 3. Wisner motions in, and Texas now knows it’s man coverage. Caleb Downs is on the complete opposite side of the play. It’s simple. Moore rubs for Wingo on a bang-bang slant play. It should be money.
Texas’s offensive line perfectly picks up a blitz, leaving Manning with a clean pocket. Moore and Wingo execute perfectly and Wingo has a step and a half on the corner. It’s probably a touchdown. Instead…
To Manning’s credit, the ball is placed well, but Parker Livingstone is
A. not the correct read
B. has a CB draped all over him.
That’s an extremely low percentage throw. Why is he ever looking Livingstone’s way when Wingo is the first read and the play is executed perfectly by the other 10 players on the field?
There’s nuance to everything in football, but it’s hard not to look at these two possessions and see a QB leaving 14 points on the field. Yes, Sark stubbornly called the QB sneak. Yes, the run blocking didn’t do the rushers many favors, but execution must be better from Manning.
Unfortunately, Texas already ruined many Longhorn fans’ freedom from want on Saturday. There’s plenty to fix in Austin, but playcalling doesn’t look like the primary problem.
