Major League Baseball’s 2025 Draft will get underway Sunday, when the Washington Nationals make the No. 1 selection for the third time in franchise history. With respect to Eli Willits, the high school shortstop who is ranked No. 1 on my final pre-draft top 30, it’s fair to write that he’s not even the most famous Oklahoma prep infielder in this year’s class. That honor would instead go to Ethan Holliday.
Holliday is the youngest scion of Oklahoma baseball’s royal family. His father Matt was an outfielder who made seven All-Star Games and cleared 40 Wins Above Replacement in his career. His older brother Jackson was the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft and has been an above-average hitter in his age-21 season with the Orioles.
Obviously there’s a benefit to having famous relatives — there’s a reason people know Ethan exists, whereas they might be blissfully unaware of Billy Carlson, JoJo Parker, and other top prepsters — but there’s a cost too. Ethan has, predictably, been subjected to sky-high expectations, the likes of which have, at times, caused him to be viewed in a more critical light than his peers.
With that in mind, let’s highlight three ways the Holliday family factors into his standing.
1. He’s a different player than Jackson
A common misconception about ballplaying siblings is that their games are often more alike than not. That may be on occasion, but it’s far from a given. Consider the Hollidays.
Even as an amateur, Jackson’s stock hinged on his bat-to-ball skills and his ability to stick up the middle defensively. The last component of his game to develop was always going to be his power, but he atoned for it in part by being a swift runner. It wouldn’t be accurate to describe Ethan as the exact inverse, but there aren’t a ton of similarities. Rather, his foundation is his good approach and well-above-average raw power — a pairing that will need to overcome some swing-and-miss in his game. Additionally, he’s likely to end up at third base over the long haul.
Here’s what I wrote about Ethan when I ranked him as the sixth-best prospect in the class:
The famous player in this year’s draft. Holliday is the son of a former All-Star and the brother of a future one, placing enormous (and probably unfair) expectations on his own career. Fortunately, he’s an intriguing prospect who might end up going No. 1 overall, thereby matching his brother and becoming the first set of siblings to each be chosen at the top of the draft. Anyway, Holliday is likely to end up at third base before all is said and done, but the real selling point here is and will remain his bat. He’s a lefty hitter with a good approach and big-time strength, giving him the kind of on-base and slugging capacity that could entrench him in the middle of an order. Scouts do still have concerns about his contact chops, but they were encouraged by his decision to add a toe tap to his operation this spring and believe he’ll work to get the most from his talent.
Of course, there is one thing Jackson and Ethan share that makes scouts more confident in his chances of making things work: Matt.
2. Matt’s insight a potential X-factor
Potential draft picks with headline-worthy bloodlines certainly benefit from that relationship, but I’ve had many conversations with scouts about how much difference it actually makes long term, and if evaluators tend to err by projecting too much growth from that category of player. After all, a player in Holliday’s situation has likely already been exposed to pro-level instruction and conditioning, meaning they won’t necessarily make the same gains that a player without that background might.
Oftentimes, evaluators shrug off a player being related to this or that past star as a tangible factor. I’ve found Matt Holliday to be an exception. Some of the scouts I talk with believe that Matt is a high-grade hitting instructor, giving the Hollidays a renewable resource — and an external support staff, of sorts — that others lack. Whether or not you believe that to be true will be revealed over the long haul. For now, Jackson’s recent uptick in output is the closest the general public has to evidence of Matt’s status as a hitting savant.
“I did mention to him, ‘Hey, it looks to me like you’re a little bit around the ball,'” Matt told MLB.com about his suggestion to his older son in late April. “When he initially started this move of more of the toe tap and away from the leg kick, his hands were a little further away from him, and I think gave him a little more space to maneuver, and so, we talked about that.”
Jackson entered that contest with a .633 OPS. He’s since raised his seasonal OPS to .724. Maybe that improvement would have happened regardless, but for now, Jackson’s ascent may indirectly cause teams to gain confidence in Ethan reaching his ceiling.
3. Chance to make history
It remains anyone’s guess who the Nationals will take with the first pick. Recent rumblings have suggested LSU left-hander Kade Anderson might be the frontrunner. Take those murmurs with a helping of salt: even the Nationals likely won’t make up their minds until the final hours, when the posturing phase of negotiations ends and the parties can commence serious talks.
If the Nationals end up selecting Holliday, he and Jackson will become the first set of brothers to each be chosen No. 1 overall in the MLB Draft. At minimum, the two seem certain to join a select class of siblings who were each selected within the first half of the first round in the last 30 years:
- Justin (No. 1 overall, 2005) and B.J. (No. 2, 2002) Upton
- J.D. (No. 2, 1997) and Stephen (No. 15, 2004) Drew
- Dmitri (No. 4, 1991) and Delmon (No. 1, 2003) Young
- Rickie (No. 2, 2003) and Jemile (No. 12, 2008) Weeks
- Josh (No. 8, 2019) and Jace (No. 12, 2022) Jung
- Jeff (No. 14, 1998) and Jered (No. 12, 2004) Weaver
Where will the Hollidays end up ranking among those brother tandems? We’ll find out soon enough.
