The UFC returns to Australia this weekend for a UFC Fight Night card headlined by light heavyweights Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes at RAC Arena in Perth (10 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN App, with prelims at 7 p.m.).

Ulberg, ESPN’s No. 4-ranked light heavyweight, enters the contest riding an eight-fight winning streak. He picked up a unanimous decision over former champion Jan Blachowicz in his last bout in March.

Reyes, ranked No. 7 by ESPN, is a former divisional title challenger. He has knocked out each of his past three opponents dating to June 2024.

ESPN MMA analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith provide their main event predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.

Reyes has been fighting smart lately. The question was always: “Is he good enough to be a champion?” He has always been good enough. The knock on him is that he has made poor decisions in past fights. If he sits back, fights from the outside and is smarter about when it’s appropriate to be aggressive, he can use his punching power and athleticism to his advantage. I won’t be surprised if Ulberg catches him. We’ve seen that before. But Reyes is big, he’s talented and he’s got it back in his head that he can make a run for the title. — Anthony Smith

Normally, I don’t go with guys I have lost faith in, but this is a tough one. I lost faith in Reyes after he lost four in a row from 2020 to 2022, but recently I’ve regained it. He is on a three-win run and he’s confident. He has the ability to put hands on people. With his newfound confidence, I think he will outwork Ulberg in all areas. — Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of Sept. 25. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Over 1.5 rounds. The winner of this fight could position himself as next in line for a shot at the light heavyweight championship. Ulberg is the more well-rounded fighter, but the near 2-to-1 odds in Ulberg’s favor are too wide to take the money line on him.

Ulberg has won his past two fights by decision, and he won’t rush in and allow Reyes to counterstrike, so it’s win by knockout or bust for Reyes. Both men are aware of the other’s power and won’t get involved in a brawl, so take over 1.5 rounds in this one. I expect Ulberg to dictate the pace and stretch the fight into the later rounds, while Reyes will fish for the late KO.

Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card

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Jack Jenkins comes out victorious as Herbert Burns doesn’t get up

Jack Jenkins grabs the victory in Australia as opponent Herbert Burns is too injured to keep going.

Featherweight: Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Tavaras

Jenkins to win by KO/TKO/decision. Stylistically, this is a solid matchup for Jenkins. He should have the advantage anywhere the fight ends up, and I expect him to work in damaging calf kicks early and often. Jenkins has risen to a near 3-to-1 favorite, so take a double method of victory to get the line down.

Lightweight: Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell

Nolan to win (-150). This should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts. Nolan is huge for the weight class and knows how to truly use his reach advantage, making it hard for any opponent to land strikes on him. Campbell is taking this fight on short notice, so look for him to be aggressive early instead of relying on his cardio to hold up in Round 2 and Round 3. Campbell is entertaining, but I think the reach and well-roundedness of Nolan’s game will be too much for a 30-year-old making his first UFC appearance of 2025.

Light heavyweight: Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Stirling to win inside the distance. After back-to-back decision wins for Stirling in his past two fights, I’m looking for him to get a finish. Bellato is physically strong but has taken a lot of damage in his three UFC fights. It may take only one clean shot from Stirling to put Bellato’s lights out. We have seen Bellato recover when his opponent has gassed out, but I don’t see that happening here. Stirling showed high fight IQ against Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan in his past two fights, so he won’t slow down, even if he can’t get the finish.