UFC 319 predictions — Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

The middleweight championship is up for grabs at Saturday’s UFC 319. Champion Dricus du Plessis will be putting the title on the line against top challenger Khamzat Chimaev in the night’s main event.

Du Plessis entered the UFC with an awkward style that seemed to mark him as a fun fighter destined for the middle of the UFC’s middleweight rankings. Instead, he turned that awkward style into a puzzle that opponents have not been able to figure out, going on a run that includes wins over multiple former champions, including two successful title defenses.

Chimaev ripped through the competition in his first few UFC bouts, immediately making himself into a man many believed was destined for UFC gold. Chimaev has had to battle through injuries, illnesses and travel issues to finally get his crack at a title and now looks to make good when he faces du Plessis in Chicago.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 319 fight card, odds

• Khamzat Chimaev -220 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +180, middleweight title
• Aaron Pico -195 vs. Lerone Murphy +165 featherweights
• Carlos Prates -260 vs. Geoff Neal +210, welterweights
• Michael Page -180 vs. Jared Cannonier +150, middleweights
• Kai Asakura -300 vs. Tim Elliot +240, flyweights
• Michal Oleksiejczuk -220 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +180, middleweights
• Loopy Godinez -150 vs. Jessica Andrade +125, women’s strawweights
• Chase Hooper -330 vs. Alexander Hernandez +260, lightweights
• Edson Barboza -160 vs Drakkar Klose +135, lightweights
• Bryan Battle -170 vs. Nursulton Ruziboev +145, middleweights
• Karine Silva -230 vs. Dione Barbosa +190, women’s flyweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 319 picks, predictions

Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

Campbell: The efficient and violent dominance shown by Chimaev in at least six of his eight UFC bouts make it understandable that he would be the betting favorite, especially after his recent first-round dismantling of former champion Robert Whittaker. But Chimaev’s run hasn’t been without shocking inconsistency at times, whether that be inside the cage, missing weight or fighting just once in three of the last four years due injuries, illnesses and visa issues. Until du Plessis fails to figure out a path to victory against another elite opponent, it remains difficult to count him out, especially if this fight goes into the championship rounds, where Chimaev (who faded in Round 3 of his 2022 win over Kamaru Usman) has never been. DDP will need to be careful on the ground, for sure. But he’s very good to great in every category and knows how to win close fights. 

Brookhouse: There is no doubt that Chimaev is a unique animal. He takes guys down and rips through their defenses with regularity. But he also hasn’t shown the greatest cardio when he’s been pushed past the first round. If there’s one thing du Plessis has, it’s a deep gas tank, even when he looks like he’s tiring. Du Plessis brings an awkward style that allows him to throw opponents off and he just doesn’t stop coming forward as the fight wears on. As long as du Plessis can get through the first round, he should be able to start being the man deciding the pace of the fight and that’s where he can take over.

Pico vs. Murphy

Campbell: It’s no secret to anyone that UFC has big plans for Pico after the promotion was lucky to snatch him out of free agency after PFL parted ways with the former Bellator MMA uber prospect. Pico is far from a perfect fighter, but he does everything extremely well and seems to have put his early losses behind him. Murphy, who replaced fellow unbeaten Movsar Evloev on late notice, is a technical fighter with plenty of skill but he has consistently lacked that extra gear to propel himself out of the pack of title contenders. If Pico is going to finally capitalize on his insane potential, now would be the time at age 28 in his long-awaited UFC debut. Should Pico get the win, a title shot is likely in order. All he has to do is remain responsible defensively and look to build off the threat of his wrestling by cutting off the cage and making Murphy pay. 

Mahjouri: I’m picking against my initial winner, Murphy. I instinctively picked Murphy, believing his long-term preparation for wrestlers would let his striking flourish. Then I saw his UFC takedown defense stats: 54%. Pico has great power in his hands, but going strike for strike with Murphy is a mistake. The UFC debutant should use boxing to set up frequent takedowns. Murphy had three weeks to prepare for UFC 319. If Pico can make Murphy work, he’ll fatigue him by the end of Round 2. Pico via decision. 

Prates vs. Neal

Brookhouse: It feels like the most you can say for Neal coming into this fight is that he has a puncher’s chance. Neal can pop, though, so he’s a live dog. Prates is an overwhelming force when he’s on his game and the loss to Ian Machado Garry likely forced him to reset his game and learn to not drift into passivity as he did at times in that bout. This is likely going to be a long night for Neal, or a short one if Prates does what he does best.

Mahjouri: Neal has taken some serious damage. His power is an instant gamechanger, but Prates volume and power will prevent him from settling in. Against Garry, Prates was outsmarted and out skilled. Neal is a phenomenal striker but doesn’t have the diversity to nullify Prates. It won’t happen quickly, but Prates should find a finish in Round 3 or, at least, a decision.