As with every UFC event, there are some big questions lingering over the top fights at UFC 316. Primary among those questions is whether Sean O’Malley has made the changes necessary to overcome bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili in their main event rematch.
Dvalishvili overwhelmed O’Malley with pressure and pace in the first meeting, prompting O’Malley to make several changes in his personal life and add extra focus to his preparation for the rematch. Whether those changes are enough to overcome Dvalishvili’s smothering attack and seemingly endless gas tank remains to be seen.
Also in question is whether two-time Olympic gold medalist Kayla Harrison can make good on her talents and win her first UFC championship. Harrison will be facing women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Pena in the night’s co-main event.
Pena is on her second run as champion but will have to overcome the size and skill of Harrison as she did when she pulled off a shocking 2021 upset of Amanda Nunes.
As with every major UFC card, there is sure to be plenty of interest in the event from sportsbettors. And, as always, we are here to give our picks for the best bet for each of UFC 316’s main card fights.
UFC 316 fight card: Patchy Mix’s debut, Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque among undercard fights to watch
Shakiel Mahjouri
After a slightly disappointing 2-3 result for our best bets for UFC 314, our 2025 record sits at 14-9. We’ll look to continue our roll on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s picks.
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
Over 1.5 rounds (-175)
Both Luque and Holland have a history of fights ending in the first round, but this pairing sets up well to go past the halfway point of Round 2. Luque is a strong grappler, while Holland has the edge in striking. Both are competent enough in the other’s strength that this shouldn’t be a quick blowout, wherever the fight ends up. Holland can do some crafty work off of his back if Luque manages to effectively implement his wrestling. Likewise, Luque is a competent offensive striker with a solid chin. Luque will be at a significant reach disadvantage and won’t want to spend much of the fight striking at range, but these two do set up well to play the over.
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Patchy Mix moneyline (-180)
Unlike Patricio Pitbull, Mix is a former Bellator champion who is making his UFC debut while still in his prime. Bautista is a guy who grinds out wins in whatever way is needed, but he’s far less dynamic than Mix. Mix’s 2020 loss to Juan Archuleta proved to be an important lesson, as he gassed out badly after a strong start. He seems to have taken the right steps to be more effective in his approach since that night and now presents a tough puzzle for Bautista to solve. As long as Mix can keep his back off the cage, he should have more than enough to his game to outwork Bautista over three rounds. Given Bautista’s style, I don’t want to play Mix by stoppage, but he is good enough to find a finish, so the moneyline is the play.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Fight to go the distance: Yes (-105)
Pyfer will be the much larger man on Saturday and he has the skillset to continue climbing the ranks. That said, Gastelum is the most experienced man Pyfer has ever been in with, and we saw Pyfer come up short against Jack Hermansson. Gastelum is savvy and capable of making things tricky on anyone, even as he’s gone 4-6 in his 10 most recent fights. There’s certainly value in thinking Gastelum can pull the upset at +300, but Pyfer might simply be too big and too strong to let Gastelum get his game going. What I do think is that Gastelum can likely work his way to the end of the fight. Not feeling overly confident about either man getting the win, we’ll go with the fight going the distance.
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
Kayla Harrison via submission or TKO/KO/DQ (-175)
Harrison is a huge favorite for a title challenger, and for good reason. It’s hard to see any way that Pena can fend off Harrison’s takedowns. Once the fight hits the floor, it feels like a question of whether Harrison finishes the fight with strikes or by sinking in a submission. Pena has been submitted twice in her career, and Harrison is very good at submitting people. You could get Harrison by submission at +130 or by TKO/KO/DQ at +275. Instead of picking either, you can go with the safe play of the “double chance” at -175 and hope things don’t go sideways with Pena being tough enough to go five rounds. There’s also the outside chance that if Harrison can’t get a stoppage in the first two rounds, she badly fades starting in the third with how badly drained she looked on the scales at the weigh-in.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley
Merab Dvalishvili via decision (-160)
I have been feeling some serious upset vibes heading into this fight, but Dvalishvili by decision at -160 is too good to pass up when considering the most likely outcomes. We saw the way that Dvalishvili’s pace, pressure and cardio gave O’Malley fits in their first fight. I don’t believe Dvalishvili is going to finish O’Malley, which makes decision the only play, especially considering the Dvalishvili moneyline is -285. I expect a better performance by O’Malley, but Dvalishvili is just a difficult match-up for O’Malley when it comes to the constant amount of pressure he can apply.
Who wins UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
