Sean O’Malley looks to reclaim the UFC men’s bantamweight championship when he takes on titleholder Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 316 on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV, with prelims at 8 on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+/Disney+).
O’Malley, ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, held the title from August 2023 to September 2024, when he lost to Dvalishvili by unanimous decision. This is O’Malley’s first fight since the loss. Dvalishvili, ESPN’s No. 4-ranked men’s pound-for-pound fighter, beat Umar Numagomedov by unanimous decision in his last fight.
In the co-main event, Julianna Peña puts her women’s bantamweight title on the line against Kayla Harrison. Peña, ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s women’s P4P rankings, narrowly beat Raquel Pennington by split decision to claim the title. This is Peña’s second title run. Harrison, ESPN’s No. 4-ranked women’s P4P fighter, enters the fight following a unanimous decision win over Ketlen Vieira. Harrison is a former two-time PFL champion.
Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC fighters Din Thomas and Anthony Smith to get their main event predictions. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Men’s bantamweight championship
This [pick] has nothing to do with O’Malley. I just think in order to beat Merab, you have to be the bantamweight version of the late Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. There has to be that one-punch, shut-off power. O’Malley fights so well at range, but I don’t think Merab is going to give him space to do what he does best. — Anthony Smith
It will be slightly closer and more competitive than their first [fight], but I think Merab’s intensity will be a little too much for O’Malley. And ultimately, O’Malley won’t be able to stay off his back. — Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of June. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-170). It is hard to imagine this rematch going any differently than the first fight. Since then, Dvalishvili has defended successfully against an elite fighter in Nurmagomedov, while O’Malley has sat idly, hoping for this opportunity. Unless O’Malley catches the champ off guard and puts him away, I expect this to be a typical Dvalishvili fight. Look for him to shoot continuous takedowns and apply pressure at a menacing pace for all five rounds. To make the price more manageable, you can take Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Women’s bantamweight championship
Julianna is going to spend too much time trying to wrestle, and it’s not going to work. She’ll end up on her back, where I see her eating a few too many elbows. — Din Thomas
I think Julianna fights a lot in the gray areas, punching into clinches and takedowns. I don’t think she can win those situations and win enough of those moments to beat Kayla. I think it’ll be competitive at times and Julianna will attack Kayla’s gas tank, but Kayla will win more moments over the course of five rounds. — Anthony Smith
Betting analysis
Parker: Under 4.5 rounds (+125). Harrison is the biggest betting favorite on the card, which is rare for the challenger in a title fight. Although Peña is tough, unless Harrison gasses out to the point that she can’t land a takedown, it’s hard to imagine her not finishing Peña. Once Harrison gets the fight to the mat, Peña will be in a world of trouble, fighting just to survive. At some point, Harrison’s takedowns and top pressure will be too much.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Men’s bantamweight: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Mix to win (-185). Mix is making his debut against Bautista, who is on a seven-fight winning streak. This matchup should feature plenty of fun grappling exchanges. If this fight stays on the feet, it’s a coin toss. However, if Mix can put Bautista on his back, he will take over. Mix may be the best grappler in the world at 135 pounds, and I believe his skills will be on full display.
Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Spivac to win (-150). Spivac is a near -150 favorite, which is surprising, as I believe he should be a -200 or even heavier. On the feet, Spivac is the more skilled striker, and he has an excellent ground game that Cortes-Acosta won’t be able to defend. As long as Spivac stays away from Cortes-Acosta’s power, he should be able to close the distance and utilize his grappling advantage to get the win.
