• Permutations, intrigues over Shettima, Kwankwaso, others
From Desmond Mgboh, Kano
A cross the North, there is a growing anxiety among members of the political class as regards the choice of President Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s running mate in 2027.
While some political groups in the region are at home with the continuation of the Tinubu /Shettima ticket in 2027, some others are pushing for Shettima’s replacement with the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, or a Christian Northerner from the same North East geo-political zone. Some others believe that Tinubu might also be considering the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abass, as his running mate in 2027.
But by far the most forceful of these groups urging for the replacement of Vice President Shettima is the group angling for the former Governor of Kano State and the leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
A close ally of Kwankwaso, who elected not to be quoted for personal reasons, confided in Sunday Sun that Senator Kwankwaso is not opposed to the agenda.
The source believed that when the time comes and if the right procedures are emplaced, Kwankwaso would exit his current party, NNPP for the All Progressives Congress (APC). He insisted that what the administration is lacking, at the moment, is a strong deputy, who can ease the President of the overarching responsibility of his office, governance and help him harness his politics. He did not think that Vice President Shettima had sufficiently discharged this responsibility since he assumed office some two years ago.
He asserted that this weakness was directly responsible for the sharp slide in Tinubu’s politics in the core North, adding that in just two years, Tinubu, once the darling of the region, has lost his exceptional appeal and attraction.
In his reasoning, a political gladiator like Kwankwaso, who is highly regarded across the core North, is a sure bet for the kind of revival that is needed for rebirth of Tinubu in the region ahead of 2027.
“Kwankwaso has a huge population of Northern youths behind him. Kwankwaso already has an imposing structure in many of the states of the North and Kwankwaso has the right rhetorical power to sway opponents to the side of Tinubu in any debate,” he declared.
The source also argued that Kwankwaso is a workaholic, who is never tired of work or tired of working for the ordinary man.
“I see in him another Wike kind of workaholic. If you look at his two-time tenure as the governor of Kano State, you will agree with me on this. Kano was never short of his positive exploits. The state was almost becoming a new Dubai by the time his tenure ended. I think he will bring these vast experiences, this vast energy to bear if he is chosen as Tinubu’s running mate. In fact with him on the ticket, the election is a done deal,” he argued.
Sunday Sun reports that there are two factors credited to Kwankwaso by several respondents in the course of working on this report. Those interviewed were unanimous that Tinubu would benefit from the high voting population of Kano State if he picked Kwankwaso as his running mate. They all also said that Tinubu would also gain from Kano Government House as the Kano State Governor will automatically align himself with the position of his mentor, Kwankwaso.
“Today, Tinubu is interested in more Government Houses, especially Kano Government House. We can all smell it from afar, but we don’t know for sure how he intends to go about it. That means he may have to negotiate and do a trade-off with Kwankwaso because everybody knows that Kwankwaso has a strong political influence over Governor Kabiru Yusuf,” he stated.
A former Regional Editor with the New Nigeria Newspaper and a renowned political commentator, Lamara Garba also insisted that Senator Kwankwaso is the best running mate for Tinubu in 2027.
In his opinion on the subject, he asserted that, “Since 1999, no political personality or character in Northern Nigeria has maintained relevance, respect and regional command like Kwankwaso.”
He added: “Kwankwaso has been a governor, a Minister of Defence, a governor again, a Senator and a leader of a political party,” noting that in all these services to humanity, he has returned “untamed, unbought and unbowed.”
But there are those with different thoughts. They believe that what Tinubu stands to gain from Kwankwaso as his running mate is less than what he will lose. Some of them think that picking him for such a role in 2027 ahead of Shettima is a big political gamble.
Kamilu Fagge, a professor of political science and former Head of the Department of Political Science, Bayero University, Kano, offered insights into the potential challenges that the choice will throw up.
His words: ‘The issue of Tinubu dropping Vice President Shettima and replacing him with Kwankwaso in the 2027 polls, I think, is a highly risky political gamble. On one side, Kwankwaso is from Kano State and he is very popular, especially among the youths of Kano and Kano has a large population.
“On the positive side, I think that if Kwankwaso is adopted as Tinubu’s running mate, it will come with certain political benefits. APC will probably be able to get Kano State and so on.
“But other than that, I don’t think that picking Kwankwaso in place of Shettima will give the APC an advantage in states of the North-East and in the other North West states.
“The gamble is this, like I had said earlier, Kwankwaso will win Tinubu more votes in Kano State but that will be at the risk of losing the votes of other states, especially the votes of the six states in the North East.
“And you know, for one to be a President of Nigeria, it is not just the number of votes that matters alone, you have to get a constitutional spread also. And if care is not taken, it would be difficult for APC to get a quarter of the votes in those six North Eastern states.”
“The second aspect of the risky gamble is that Kwankwaso’s choice might reopen the issue of religious politics in Nigeria – the issue of the Muslim- Muslim ticket,” he cautioned.
Fagge explained further: “In the past, we know that the Muslim-Muslim ticket had generated a lot of heat in Nigerian politics. So, by the time a Muslim is dropped and another Muslim is taken, for sure our Christian brothers will raise eyebrows that what they said during the past attempt is now being given credence, that APC is for the Muslims alone, it is not for them. And that will be another costly gamble for the party.
“The third gamble that Tinubu and APC will be taking if they picked Kwankwaso as a running mate is the fact that Kwankwaso is a very strong personality.
“He has a strong ego and the President will find it difficult to bend him the way he likes or the way he is bending Shettima today. And you know that the President also has a strong personality – when he was a governor because of personality issues, he had to change his deputy governor three times. So by the time he has Kwankwaso as his deputy, I think that there will be a serious personality clash between them, even though Kwankwaso may likely pipe down because of his ambition to become the next President.”
Alwalu Abdullahi, a Kaduna based analyst, in his response described Kwankwaso as an overrated political asset. He expressed doubts that Kwankwaso would be able to match his own profile as a political icon.
To buttress his point, he recalled the relationship between Kwankwaso and former Vice President Atiku in the 2019 polls. In all that, Atiku was sold the make-belief that all he needed to do well in the 2019 polls was to sway Kwankwaso to his side and the entire Kano votes would be his. However, this turned out to be a fatal error.
Abdullahi also averred that Kwankwaso’s politics is laced with too much conflicts and in fighting. According to him, Kwankwaso’s trajectory across these political parties is a story of conflicts and non-resolution of interests.
“He started off with the People Democratic Party (PDP) and became governor. He was one of those governors that defected to the APC to fight Jonathan. He later defected from the APC back to PDP. After this conflict, he moved out of the PDP to form the NNPP, in conjunction with Chief Boniface. In all these parties, he either came because of a fight or left as a result of a fight.
Masaud el Jilbrin Doguwa, a former senator who represented Kano South in 1999, cautioned Tinubu against dropping Shettima for Kwankwaso, saying it would be a big political mistake.
He also remarked that Kwankwaso was not exactly popular in the North outside Kano State, insisting that in many of these states, he would need to struggle hard to secure a quarter of their votes.
Doguwa added that there are several former North-West governors who played critical roles in the making of the Tinubu Presidency and were only rewarded with ministerial appointments. He listed them to include Badaru, Matawale, Masari and Bagudu. He noted that these men might be upset if an “outsider” was picked ahead of them.
