September is the month that the NHL starts lurching back to life, and with so much of our focus centered around the Penguins, we’ll take the next week or so to look into the Pens’ biggest rivals. How did their off-season go? What could they look like? What are their short-term goals and expectations for the season? We’ll try to give a sense of those types of things as we start to set the stage for the puck dropping on the 2025-26 season. And we’ll begin with a notable team in the New York Rangers.
It’s been a wild last 12 months for the Manhattan hockey club. 2023-24 saw NYR win the Presidents Trophy as the league’s top regular season team and then defeat Washington and Carolina in the playoffs before bowing out in six games to the Florida Panthers. Since then, it’s basically been downhill – the Rangers failed to qualify for the 2025 playoffs. Their GM listed several key players available for trade, and dealt away their captain midseason. There was a fairly contentious and increasingly public negotiation with their franchise player, Igor Shesterkin, that resulted in a positive result with a contract extension. The coach was fired. Lots of turbulence there, almost a soap opera of dramatic storylines swinging in various different directions.
That leaves New York in a curious place for 2025-26. Their aging core is a year older, and either in an irreversible decline or at least going through one heck of a bump in the road. NYR added Mike Sullivan, no stranger towards getting the most out of veteran cores. How will it go for them? Might be good, might be bad, but it definitely will be one of the NHL’s more interesting situations to watch unfold.
Additions: The Rangers signed one of the biggest free agent contracts of the summer by giving Vladislav Gavrikov (formerly of the Kings) $49 million over seven years ($7.0m cap hit). Regardless of how that deal might age in the future, it should solidify the NYR defense in the present by giving them one of the more competent and solid defensive defenders in the game. The Rangers were pretty quiet in terms of additions other than that big swing, they brought on forward Taylor Raddish following his 27-point season in Washington last year on a modest $1.5m cap hit, gave former Penguin Conor Sheary a PTO and that’s about it for notable adds, besides of course getting Sullivan himself. (Sullivan, by the way, brought David Quinn and Ty Hennes from the Pens to be assistant coaches, Joe Sacco rounds out the staff).
Losses: Chris Kreider, drafted by NYR in 2009 and a staple of the team since he turned pro during the 2012 playoffs, ends his days in New York after being traded this summer to Anaheim for a third round pick in a move designed so NYR could clear salary…The other big departure is the Rangers deciding to trade K’Andre Miller, instead of giving him a contract extension. Miller is off to Carolina for prospect Scott Morrow and a future first round pick…The other losses were minimal, Zac Jones departs after never fitting in, Arthur Kaliyev was a waiver pickup that moved on in free agency and Calvin de Haan left as well.
Projected lineup (from nhl.com)
Will Cuylle — J.T. Miller — Mika Zibanejad
Artemi Panarin — Vincent Trocheck — Alexis Lafreniere
Gabe Perreault — Juuso Parssinen — Jonny Brodzinski
Adam Edstrom — Sam Carrick — Taylor Raddysh
Vladislav Gavrikov / Adam Fox
Carson Soucy / Will Borgen
Urho Vaakanainen / Braden Schneider
Igor Shesterkin
Jonathan Quick
This lineup is…fine I guess? The top-six ought to be a strength, Panarin (550 career points as a Ranger in 430 games) can always be counted on to produce big numbers and the Rangers get a full season out of Miller (who scored 35 points in 32 games upon being traded back to NY last season). That should give enough raw firepower with fan favorite Will Cuylle developing into a quality supporting piece and Vincent Trocheck serving as a great center for Panarin. Down the lineup, Perreault is a former first round pick who could add some skill and secondary scoring.
The defense looks passable but not much more, likely to rise or fall depending on what kind of seasons and performances the Rangers get out of Soucy and Borgen. It will likely be nothing exceptional but, again, nothing terrible either, perfectly passable without standing out much one way or the other.
In net, all the eggs are in the Shesterkin basket. Shesterkin played a career high in games last year (61) but also had his worst NHL season (.905 save%, 2.86 GAA, first time more losses than wins). NY will be counting on a better statistical year from the league’s new highest paid goalie, but should stand to see some positive regression there considering how much of an absolute defensive gongshow the Rangers were under former coach Peter Laviolette last season.
Is the future now? Much of the Rangers core from the early 2020’s is up in the air; Panarin is a free agent after this season, Mika Zibanejad is starting to fade away as an effective front line player, Kreider and Jacob Trouba are gone. The Rangers rearranged the pieces by sending Miller out and bringing Gavrikov in, but did little else with their personnel this summer, without much room to do more (CapWages projects them with $1.5 million in current space). This year feels like a last chance for what they have, more changes are always right around the corner in one of the most impatient markets in the league.
How will Sullivan do? Sullivan had 35 million reasons to join the Rangers, but beyond the pay considerations this is an interesting project for him to take on. Obviously it’s a team with more ambition and willingness to compete in the short-term than what his previous team has, but it also seems like a fragile operation. GM Chris Drury basically conducted mind games with key members of his team last year, some of whom are now gone. Is all that resolved and in the rear view? Can Sullivan stabilize and steady this club and get them pointed back to the playoffs? The Rangers don’t seem like they have the material on paper to be a championship contender, but if Shesterkin gets back to a Vezina finalist type of level in net then they should be able to be some level of competitive. Just what that level shows to be will be a very interesting one to watch unfold.
Potential OutcomesHere we paint some pictures of a semi-realistic best and worst case scenarios for the upcoming season..
Reasonable best case scenario — Buoyed by the upgrade from Laviolette to Sullivan (the Rangers finished a shocking 30th in 5v5 high danger chances allowed last season), the team stabilizes and tightens up significantly by playing smarter and better. This helps Shesterkin bounce back from a substandard 2024-25 to have a quality 2025-26. The Rangers aren’t overly deep but are top-heavy enough with Panarin and Miller to rack up a ton of regular season wins. Gavrikov’s steadying presence helps Adam Fox get back into the Norris conversation. The Rangers are right there with the Devils competing for 2nd/3rd place in the division, safely qualifying for the playoffs.
Reasonable worst case scenario — Gavrikov is a free agent flop in year one that has difficulty acclimating to New York, causing significant issues on the blueline. Tension lingers and occasionally boils over in the press between GM Drury and under-performing vets like Zibanejad. Panarin’s contract negotiation hangs over the team and fans once the media gets a hold of it. Sullivan’s coaching changes don’t change that many/most the best players on the team are in their 30’s. Shesterkin isn’t as elite as he was from 2020-24 for the second season in a row. The Rangers don’t have much unity or cohesion and again end up outside the playoff bubble in a 2025-26 that plays out too closely like 2024-25 did.
Overall, between Sullivan, Shesterkin, Panarin, Fox and Miller, the Rangers should have the cornerstone pieces of a playoff team this year. They won’t be confused with a true championship contender, but they have shaken things up enough in the last few months to likely have a better season they did last year that was filled by too much turmoil and drama. They’ll be a little bit more no-nonsense this year and that should help the Rangers get back to the postseason.
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