Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III is a fast, explosive talent who rushed for more than 1,000 yards during his rookie season and followed that up with another nine touchdowns in his second year. Last season, he added extensive pass receiving duties to his game. Walker has generally been a safe, high-end RB2 option for fantasy managers but has struggled to stay healthy — and last season his absence from six games opened the door for backup Zach Charbonnet. Ultimately, Charbonnet outscored Walker in total points for the season.
Don’t be surprised if … Charbonnet joins Walker as borderline RB2
There is a decent shot that Walker and Charbonnet share touches and both of them retain strong flex value for the season. Last season, they didn’t really share touches. Charbonnet earned his chances when Walker was out. This season, what happened in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers might become the norm. Charbonnet looked like the better player, rushing for 47 yards and a touchdown. Walker averaged only 2 yards per rush and ultimately played on fewer snaps. He turned his three receptions into just four yards.
The Seahawks play the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, and because the Steelers permitted 182 rushing yards to the New York Jets in Week 1, many believe the Seahawks will see similar success. Perhaps that is true. Or perhaps the Steelers fix their defensive issues. Perhaps the Jets just run on every defense this season. It’s Week 2. There is a lot of “perhaps,” you know.
Not that it matters much, but Walker and Charbonnet were both second-round draft picks, in successive seasons. They’re both good. It was always a fallacy to assume that loyalty to Walker would decide the hierarchy. There might be no hierarchy. I don’t see Charbonnet pushing Walker aside. I see a timeshare in which, in some weeks, Charbonnet gets more volume and produces RB1 statistics. In other weeks, it will be Walker. It will frustrate fantasy managers, but last season both backs finished among the top-30 RB scorers. This season, perhaps both will settle in nicely as a borderline top-20 option.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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The snap count was nearly even for Minnesota Vikings Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason. Or should that be Mason and Jones? Of course, fantasy managers are flocking to Mason. Go for it. He was a popular preseason sleeper. We acknowledge that Mason added value after earning most of the Week 1 rushing attempts, but Jones caught a TD pass. He’s not going away. I maintain Jones should be ranked better this week (still) and we will see a more even distribution of touches this week vs. Atlanta.
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As someone who does not believe Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley earns close to the same volume as last year or even stays healthy enough to perform in all 17 games, I like the Tank Bigsby acquisition from the Jaguars. Bigsby is certainly an upgrade over current Eagles backups Will Shipley and AJ Dillon. Frankly, I expect Bigsby will be very popular at certain junctures this season. Don’t dump him. Try to keep him on rosters.
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Perhaps similarly, why does everyone assume that Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. is suddenly so awesome and so much more valuable following the Bigsby trade? Rookie Bhayshul Tuten will emerge. This trade was about creating an opportunity for him. Etienne runs all over the lowly Carolina Panthers in Week 1 and now, suddenly, he’s reliable again? He averaged 3.7 yards per carry the past two seasons. Even acknowledging a new Jaguars regime and the ebbs and flows of annual performance, I would not feel safe with Etienne as a long-term RB2 and would seek an upgrade. We might be discussing this next week after Etienne provides 10 fantasy points against the Bengals.
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Etienne did run all over the Panthers, so that should mean Arizona Cardinals veteran James Conner runs wild on that defense this week. Intriguing backup Trey Benson is going to earn double-digit attempts as well. How about two Cardinals RBs with 15-plus points? It’s just tough to force Benson into lineups. Unlike at QB and WR, there aren’t notable injuries keeping top-20 options out.
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Week 2 is often about patience with rookies. Steelers rook Kaleb Johnson appears buried because of former Eagle Kenneth Gainwell. Will that last? New York Giants bulldozer Cam Skattebo lost yards on his Week 1 rushing attempts, and now the preseason darling is waiver wire fodder. The Dallas Cowboys might or might not activate Jaydon Blue this week, but fantasy managers have long since moved on. It doesn’t take much to react in fantasy. Presumably you drafted these fellows for a reason. Give that reason all of September.
Don’t be surprised if … Las Vegas Raiders QB Geno Smith keeps throwing downfield, but with more success
People view rookie RB Ashton Jeanty as the team’s most important offseason acquisition, and for good reason. Jeanty was a bit bottled up by the New England Patriots in Week 1, and things might not improve this week versus the stout Los Angeles Chargers. Be patient, though, as Jeanty will be great. Smith was more of an afterthought and remains so (rostered in only 10.8% of ESPN leagues). Few thought about the Raiders’ drafted wide receivers Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Jack Bech.
Smith averaged 10.6 yards per attempt in Week 1, far better than anything he showed over a three-year stint with the Seahawks. It isn’t sustainable, of course (Lamar Jackson was tops last season at 8.8 YPA), but it does show that these new Raiders, with creative Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, might have a more intriguing passing game than anyone imagined. Remember, Smith finished as the No. 5 fantasy scorer among quarterbacks in 2022. I think TE Brock Bowers (knee) plays this week, but Jakobi Meyers remains underrated and a rookie receiver or two (probably Thornton) will break out.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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While I invested in 49ers starter Brock Purdy (toe/shoulder) in more leagues than I can count, touting his positive metrics, it is tough to keep him around in standard leagues knowing he might be out a month or more. In single-QB formats, use the bench spot for Thornton, for example, and wait for him to become valuable. Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers and myriad other passers are available. The bye weeks start in October. And Mac Jones, against the New Orleans Saints, is not a terrible pickup in deep leagues. The 49ers system will help him.
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One more thought: Say Purdy joins teammate TE George Kittle on injured reserve. Why wouldn’t the 49ers consider a trade for Atlanta Falcons backup Kirk Cousins? I’ve kept Cousins rostered in a 2QB dynasty format for this scenario. Someone is getting him this season.
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Miami Dolphins lefty Tua Tagovailoa and Detroit Lions right-hander Jared Goff are the most-dropped QBs in ESPN leagues. I understand why, but c’mon! It was one game. The Dolphins did look awful, but they aren’t that awful. I bet the Dolphins and Patriots combine to score ample points (perhaps 60, and somewhat evenly distributed) this week.
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For the Lions, Lambeau Field was all jacked up after the stunning Micah Parsons trade, but also, Goff passed for only 145 yards and a TD at Lambeau last season. The year prior, he threw for 210 yards, and in Week 18 of 2023 there, it was 224 yards. You expected 350 yards this season in Week 1 because what, the Lions unexpectedly lost at home in January to Washington and remain angry? Keep Goff around first. He isn’t a QB1, but he’s close, and rookie Isaac TeSlaa is going to matter in fantasy. With Tagovailoa and his mates, when everyone jumps on a quick bandwagon to give up on an offense, the opposite tends to happen.
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Houston Texans starter C.J. Stroud still needs better pass protection, but it can’t be as awful as it was last season. Stroud is going to bounce back in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their weak secondary. WR Nico Collins is going to have a monster game. Rookie Jayden Higgins likely breaks out, too. I view Stroud as a solid streamer against weak defenses and believe he tops his Year 1 figures in passing yards and touchdown passes, but also interceptions. That will be enough to end up in the mid-QB2 range.
Don’t be surprised if … Chargers WR Quentin Johnston is on the most-dropped list next week
Yeah, I wrote about Johnston in the Week 1 waiver wire column, but really, I had little choice. Johnston caught 79 yards worth of Justin Herbert passes in Brazil against the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs — two for touchdowns. That’s 24.9 PPR points! Then again, haven’t we seen that from him before? It’s not just the drops during his first two NFL seasons. Johnston is inefficient and inconsistent and, in this offense that prefers to run with the football and has better wide receivers, that is a problem.
Johnston is the most-added player in ESPN leagues entering Week 2, but it is tough to see an avenue to placing him in lineups this week, or for him to enjoy long-term success with not only Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen around, but second-round pick Tre’ Harris, who awaits his turn. They are all better players. Johnston caught 55 passes and eight touchdowns last season, but I don’t see him returning to those figures this season. Herbert averaged only 29 passing attempts per game last season, and Johnston is not close to his preferred option.
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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No, I will not cut venerable Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill yet. In fact, I bet the rumors of Miami trading him make more sense now. Why wouldn’t the Chiefs trade for Hill? OK, so they’ve been there, seen that, and couldn’t wait to walk away, but are the Chiefs really going to let a season during Patrick Mahomes’ prime waste away because their receivers are overwhelmed, hurt or suspended? Hollywood Brown is not seeing another 16 targets this week. The numbers might show Hill is done, but I think he just needs more motivation (which is sad, in a different way). He knows this Dolphins team is a mess.
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This one might seem ridiculous, but we already know Lions speedster Jameson Williams is not going to challenge for 100 receptions. He isn’t a volume option. He’s more like former Eagle DeSean Jackson — a threat to score from anywhere on the field, but when he’s not scoring, he leaves us frustrated. I see Williams — who will be fine despite a slow Week 1 — catching roughly 60 passes again. I see rookie Isaac TeSlaa doing this as well. The Lions will score 35 points against the Bears. Add TeSlaa today before he contributes 7-65-1.
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I didn’t think I would be giving up on Vikings WR Adam Thielen so soon (or at all), but uninspiring Jalen Nailor started over him in Week 1, and Jordan Addison returns from suspension in Week 4.
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Indianapolis Colts rookie TE Tyler Warren easily outshined Chicago Bears rookie TE Colston Loveland in Week 1. This is not surprising. The Bears still employ Cole Kmet, and Loveland might not see many targets early. I still like him, though. Warren zoomed up my rest-of-season rankings.
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It might not be long before we rank Jacksonville Jaguars TE Brenton Strange over his former teammate Evan Engram, now with the Denver Broncos. You know the Jaguars will throw on the Bengals this week. If Strange goes for 8-60-1, and Engram (calf) misses Week 2 or is compromised, it might happen quickly.
