We’ve got another MLB debut to get excited about for Friday! We went over what to expect from – and why we’re so excited about – Jonah Tong’s debut Friday earlier this week, and I do think he should be added in just about every Fantasy league ahead of that debut, just in case he lives up to our expectations.
Payton Tolle isn’t nearly on that level, but there’s plenty to get excited about as he gets set to make his debut for the Red Sox Friday against the Pirates. For one thing, it’s a nice soft landing spot against a bad offense, making Tolle a decent streamer even if there wasn’t much to get excited about here otherwise. But the good news is, there is.
The first thing that stands out about Tolle is his size. He’s listed at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, and he puts every bit of that size to use with a fastball he can push almost to triple digits from the left side with massive extension and a delivery that keeps the ball hidden. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen hit that fastball with a 70 grade in naming him a top-100 prospect at the mid-season point, and it’s a heck of a weapon, sporting a 31.6% whiff rate in Triple-A.
Tolle isn’t a one-trick pony, though. He has a true five-pitch mix, featuring a cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball that have added up to a 36.5% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, and 3.04 ERA in 91.2 innings across three levels. The 22-year-old has pitched his way to Triple-A and has pitched around sometimes problematic results on balls in play with excellent strikeout rates and pretty terrific control.
He’s a legitimate prospect, and he might really matter for Fantasy … it’s just not clear how much he’s going to matter for Fantasy right now. The Red Sox only have four pitchers locked into their rotation right now, with Walker Buehler moved to the bullpen, so the question is whether they want to roll into September with an untested rookie in the rotation.
And that’s a question Tolle might have a chance to answer for himself. If he struggles Friday against the Pirates, well, the Red Sox probably have an easy decision – and they’ll probably turn to Kyle Harrison if that’s the case. But Tolle could certainly overpower the Pirates and force the Red Sox to keep him around if he looks like he’s going to be an immediate difference maker. And he just might. He certainly has the stuff to do it, and if he lives up to his potential, I think there’s a pretty good chance he sticks around.
Tolle’s fate is in his hands, and while I don’t think he’s so exciting that he’s worth adding in most leagues ahead of his debut like Tong, we could be talking about him as a must-add pitcher in time for next week. Let’s see what he does tonight. Here’s what else you need to know from around MLB Thursday:
Friday’s top waiver-wire targets
Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates (21%) – The Pirates slow-played Ashcraft, but he’s been in the rotation for a few weeks now, and he looks pretty good. He pitched Thursday against the Cardinals and came up an out short of his first quality start, allowing one run on four hits over his 5.2 innings of work. And he did that while striking out five, walking one, and generating 11 swinging strikes on just 73 pitches. In four starts, Ashcraft has allowed two runs with 20 strikeouts in 19 innings of work. He hasn’t shown huge swing-and-miss stuff despite throwing in the high-90s with his fastball (his slider, four-seamer, and curveball all have basically average whiff rates), but he has missed barrels well and avoided walks, and with an above-average strikeout rate, it all comes out to a 3.30 xERA (including his time as a bulk reliever). Ashcraft doesn’t have the hype of some of his rotation mates, but he’s doing enough well to be worth adding, though there is one complication: He’s scheduled to face the Dodgers next week. You won’t want to use him for that one, but he could be a two-start pitcher with good matchups for the following week and could be very useful down the stretch.
Jason Alexander, SP, Astros (22%) – I want to buy into Alexander, if only because it would be fun to think about Yankees legend George Costanza every time I look at my roster. The results are pretty good right now, with a 2.17 ERA in August, with 26 strikeouts to just six walks in 29 innings. There probably isn’t a ton of upside here, though he does have one really strong weapon, a changeup that generated 11 of his 16 whiffs Thursday. The problem with adding him? Well, he gets the Yankees next week, and while I think he’s a useful streamer against matchups like Thursday’s against the Rockies, I’m not ready to trust him against good lineups. He could be a two-start pitcher the week after, but I’m not quite sure that’s enough to make Alexander worth rostering in most leagues.
Jeremiah Jackson, OF, Orioles (7%) – Do we need to take Jackson more seriously? He’s playing pretty much every day for the Orioles and hitting .329 after a two-hit game Thursday. The bat-to-ball skills here look real – his 21% strikeout rate is right around league average, and he had a 14.2% rate in the minors this season before being promoted. The problem is that it’s been kind of an empty batting average in the majors, with just one homer and zero steals to date. But he hit 15 homers in 85 games in the minors and added 11 steals, while sporting a pretty solid 90.9 mph average exit velocity that he has carried to the majors with him. He hits the ball pretty hard and hits in the air often enough that he shouldn’t be a total zero there. It’s probably only something like a 15-15 ceiling in the majors, but if he could do that while hitting, say, .280 moving forward, that could be pretty useful in deeper leagues.
