We’ve reached a point of relative stasis within the closer ranks. Looking around the league, there aren’t many situations in flux right now.
But you can bet that’s about to change. A little event known as the trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and seeing as relief pitcher is one position that every contender could stand to upgrade, a closer shakeup is sure to accompany it.
So which closers are most likely to be on the move, and which relievers would be in line to replace them? I’ll answer both questions in a bit, but first, let’s look at the handful of closer situations (five, to be exact) that are currently in flux.
Note: “Pecking order” refers to rosterability in Fantasy and not necessarily who’s first in line for saves (though it’s usually one and the same).
Five closer situations that are currently in flux
Our long national nightmare is over. Free agent reliever David Robertson has finally chosen to sign with a team, almost two-thirds of the way through the season, and that team is the Phillies, who are very much World Series contenders and very lacking in certainty at the end of games. So does Robertson take over as their closer? We’d better not get ahead of ourselves. After all, he’s 40 years old and hasn’t thrown a single pitch this year. But when he last pitched last year, he put together a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 12.4 K/9 for the Rangers, and he of course has ample closer experience with 177 career saves.
Left-hander Matt Strahm seems to have pulled ahead of right-hander Orion Kerkering as the preferred source of saves currently, but I would still consider the two to be in a tenuous tandem. Because neither has taken the job and run with it, Robertson has an opening, but it’ll be a few weeks before he steps into it, presuming it ever happens. The Phillies could still acquire a closer at the trade deadline, and let’s not forget that Jose Alvarado, who’s currently serving a PED suspension, is less than a month away from returning.
After looking at one point like he’d be the third Diamondbacks closer lost to elbow reconstruction surgery just this year, Shelby Miller instead has only an elbow flexor strain and has already begun throwing in earnest.
“The doctors all decided that he can go out there and begin a throwing program and get back on the mound,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “This is probably the best news we could have hoped for.”
But since Miller is weeks rather than days away from returning, it’s still worth speculating on his replacement, and the clearest candidate would seem to be Kevin Ginkel. He’s handled the team’s only conventional save chance since Miller went down, and he’s worked at least part of the ninth inning in each of his three appearances post-Miller. Of course, in the latest of those three appearances, Kendall Graveman actually relieved Ginkel in the ninth with the Diamondbacks leading by four. Neither Ginkel nor Graveman has good numbers, for what it’s worth, but Ginkel has at least pitched well of late, putting together a 1.80 ERA over his past 10 appearances.
Kyle Finnegan is going on three years of being the majors’ unlikeliest closing success, but it’s reasonable to wonder if his leash is running out after he allowed a combined eight earned runs in back-to-back appearances to raise his ERA from 2.36 to 4.37. Of course, it now stands at 4.25 after he struck out two in a perfect ninth for his 19th save Saturday, so … maybe that’s the end of it? You don’t get to be the majors’ unlikeliest closing success three years running without a short-term memory.
Besides, what other choices do the Nationals have? Second in the pecking order here, left-hander Jose Ferrer, is sporting a 5.07 ERA, and third in the pecking order, right-hander Luis Garcia, is a 38-year-old just barely clinging to a career after having joined his fourth team in two years. They’re worth mentioning, though, since Finnegan also fits the category a little further down this article of relievers who could be moved at the trade deadline.
No. 2 in the pecking order, who I’ve contended all along is the Rangers’ best reliever, just left Sunday’s game with a leg injury, and while the prognosis is unknown, it may eliminate Chris Martin as a viable alternative for the foreseeable future. If that’s the case, then Robert Garcia has real job security. The left-hander has been mostly unopposed for the past two months. He hasn’t entered a game earlier than the ninth inning since June 8, and even then, he went on to get a four-out save. Still, he’s always seemed like an unconventional fit for the role and, thus, like he’s on the verge of being replaced. Even if Martin turns out to be OK, it may be time to give Garcia his due.
Update: Martin has a left calf strain and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
The Marlins’ last save chance went to Anthony Bender on Saturday, and their second-to-last save chance went to Calvin Faucher on Friday. So why am I putting Ronny Henriquez at the top of the pecking order? Because everything about this bullpen is stupid, but the one thing I’m convinced of is that Henriquez is the Marlins’ best reliever. Manager Clayton McCullough seemed convinced of that, too, letting the 25-year-old handle three consecutive save chances — and rather successfully, I might add — in late June and early July. Since then, though, Henriquez has worked the eighth inning almost exclusively while Bender has picked up two saves.
So is Bender the closer, then? Probably not. The first of those two saves was of the one-out variety — he was just bailing out another reliever, basically — and it was only Friday that he was working the seventh inning to set up that save chance for Faucher (which he blew, I should note). It’s painfully clear at this point that McCullough isn’t tied to conventional bullpen roles, and if that’s the case, you should opt for the most talented reliever with a realistic chance of securing some number of saves. And that, to me, is Henriquez.
Five closer situations that could change at the trade deadline
It’s unclear how “out of it” the Angels believe they are, but if they decide that contention isn’t a realistic goal for them, Kenley Jansen would be the most obvious player to trade given that he’s on a one-year deal and every team could use another reliever. Meanwhile, Reid Detmers would be the obvious choice to replace him. He not only is the reliever most frequently setting up for Jansen but has also been closer-caliber since about mid-May, putting together a 1.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9 over his past 29 appearances.
Not enough has been made of David Bednar’s 180-degree reversal since the Pirates were forced to send him to the minors at the start of April. He went from being a burnout closer who seemed to have used up his last chance with the lowly Pirates to a legitimate bullpen ace, putting together a 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 12.4 K/9 in 34 appearances since returning. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past 19 appearances.
This resurgence makes Bednar a likely trade chip for a team with nothing to play for in the short term. Dennis Santana’s 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP would seem to make him a ready-made replacement if not for the fact that he’s just as likely to be traded. Should Bednar and Santana both go, I would guess that Isaac Mattson and Caleb Ferguson take over as a righty/lefty tandem.
Seeing as Raisel Iglesias just served up a grand slam to Trent Grisham in his latest outing Saturday to blow a tie and take the loss, you may wonder how much trade value he actually has. Well, he allowed just one hit over his previous eight outings, striking out 11. He also hadn’t allowed a run in 15 outings prior to Saturday’s grand slam. He appeared to be past his early struggles and is an obvious candidate to be traded given that he’s in the final year of his contract. Of course, Dylan Lee and especially Pierce Johnson are also candidates to be traded, so the dark horse here is Daysbel Hernandez, who isn’t even in the majors at the moment (though presumably just because the Braves needed a fresh arm right before the break).
Carlos Estevez has obviously justified the two-year deal the Royals gave him prior to the season, so no team would be doing them a favor by taking him off their hands. If they feel like they have a realistic shot at contention next year (and they technically aren’t out of it this year), they might just hold onto him. Then again, having Estevez signed for a second year (not to mention a team option for 2027) might also fetch them a better return, which is why Lucas Erceg is on the short list of relievers to stash.
At last report, the Guardians were planning to hold onto Emmanuel Clase, but there’s enough smoke here that I have to think they would listen if a World Series contender was willing to bowl them over. They have a ready-made replacement in Cade Smith, and I do think it would be Smith rather than Hunter Gaddis, even though Gaddis is the eighth-inning guy. For one thing, Smith filled in as closer when Clase was briefly demoted from the role earlier this year. For another, Smith is a much better bat-misser than Gaddis, averaging 13.5 K/9.
