This weekend is going to be filled with MMA championships. The UFC is in Chicago on Saturday for its last pay-per-view of the summer (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV; prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and the PFL World Championships continue from Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday (9 p.m. ET on ESPN; prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
At UFC 319, South African middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis makes his third title defense in the main event against ESPN’s No. 2 middleweight, Khamzat Chimaev. Neither fighter has lost inside the Octagon, with Du Plessis a perfect 9-0 with six early stoppages and Chimaev 8-0 with six stoppages.
In the co-main event, former Bellator MMA standout Aaron Pico will make his anticipated UFC debut against undefeated featherweight contender Lerone Murphy, whose eight-fight winning streak is the longest among active 145-pounders. The winner could see himself in the Octagon opposite champion Alexander Volkanovski next.
In Week 2 of the 2025 PFL World Championships, the lightweight, bantamweight and women’s flyweight titles are up for grabs. Former Bellator champion Liz Carmouche will look to add another belt to her collection against Jena Bishop. Power punchers Alfie Davis and defending champion Gadzhi Rabadanov lock up for the lightweight title. And a pair of first-season PFL contenders, Marcirley Alves and Justin Wetzell, battle for the bantamweight championship.
ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their Du Plessis vs. Chimaev predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the UFC and PFL fight cards.
Middleweight championship
Dricus won’t stop the takedown. I don’t believe Du Plessis can stop the takedown, but is he going to be good enough to get back to his feet and strong enough to get out of those spots? I think he is good enough to get back to his feet. So, we’re going to see Khamzat do something he’s never done, which is fight through adversity in a five-round fight. I’m taking DDP because of that. — Anthony Smith
A couple months ago, I would have said DDP, but I’ve changed my mind. I think Khamzat’s grappling pressure is going to be too much. DDP needs to be the better grappler to win fights and keep there where he wants, and that’s not the case in this one. — Din Thomas
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of Thursday. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Chimaev to win inside the distance (+375). In one of the most anticipated title fights of the year, Du Plessis will defend his title against giant-killer Chimaev. Can DDP defend against the chaotic pace and wrestling of Chimaev through Round 1? It’s possible, but even if he does, I find the narrative suggesting that Chimaev doesn’t have the gas tank to last beyond one round to be untrue. I think Chimaev is going to surprise a lot of people by landing quality strikes early, freeing up his wrestling. We have seen DDP withstand when he has gotten tagged before, but he has not fought someone with the wrestling of Chimaev to back their striking. I think Du Plessis is in for a rude awakening.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Lightweight: Diego Ferreira vs King Green
Ferreira to win (-150). Ferreira is 2-1 in his past three fights, with the loss coming via decision to Grant Dawson in January, so I am shocked Ferreira isn’t a bigger favorite heading into this one. Green has been finished in three of his past four fights, including being on the losing end of a brutal Mauricio Ruffy spinning wheel kick his last time out. Green, 38, isn’t getting any younger, and his chin isn’t getting any stronger. Unless he tags Ferreira early, I don’t see how he wins this fight. Ferreira is the better striker, better grappler and overall has multiple paths to victory.
Strawweight: Loopy Godínez vs Jessica Andrade
Godinez to win (-150). Andrade’s role in the strawweight division has become the litmus test for whether or not someone belongs in the top 10. Against Natalia Silva last September, Andrade got picked apart for three rounds, and in May, she was finished in the first round by Jasmine Jasudavicius. Godínez is coming off a unanimous decision win over Julia Polastri on March 29, and I believe against Andrade she will use the same wrestle-heavy approach as we saw against Polastri. Once Andrade gets put on her back, or controlled for that matter, she tends to get finished. Unless she is able to go back in time and become the juggernaut she once was, I think she gets outgrappled by Godínez.
Lightweight: Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose
Barboza to win (-150). Coming off a KO loss, Klose takes on another devastating striker. The reality is here, if Klose can’t get this fight to the floor and keep it there, he isn’t winning. There are very few better strikers than Barboza, whose leg kicking game remains at the top. Look for Barboza to defend takedowns early and add up on the calf kicks as the fight goes on.
Parker’s best bets for the PFL World Championships
Lightweight: Gadzhi Rabadanov vs. Alfie Davis
Rabadanov to win inside the distance. Rabadanov has gone from a wrestler who wins by decision to a complete mixed martial artist who has been finishing opponents left and right, and I don’t think that stops here. As good as Davis is as a striker, and he does have KO power in his arsenal, Rabadanov can match him there. Rabadanov also will have a major wrestling advantage, and wouldn’t shock me if he gets the submission win. However, if you want to play it a bit safer, take the under 4.5 rounds, as I don’t see this fight reaching the final bell.
Women’s flyweight: Liz Carmouche vs Jena Bishop
Carmouche to win inside the distance. Carmouche has shown us yet again that age is just a number, as the 41-year-old has another opportunity to win the world tournament. Unless Bishop catches her with an early submission, I see Carmouche not only winning but getting the finish. Look for her to take top position and utilize her elbows and ground-and-pound to get the win.
Bantamweight: Marcirley Alves vs. Justin Wetzell
Alves to win. As of Monday, Alves was a -150 favorite, but the odds have ballooned to -225. However, I’ll still take him. For Wetzell to win, he needs to take Alves down and hold him there, which I don’t see happening. Alves’ takedown defense has been impeccable this season, and if the fight stays on the feet, he has a major advantage. Look for Alves to push a ton of striking volume throughout this fight and win the tournament.
