Like most jiu-jitsu fighters who transition to MMA, Aly has some holes in his striking game, particularly with his defense. Aly keeps his hands low when inside punching range and does not have great head movement or distance management. This is a deficiency Aly needs to plug up and could eventually be a problem for him.

Baraniewski also has a grappling background with a competitive judo background and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Baraniewski has the baseline of skills to do well on the ground in most matchups, but Aly presents a much steeper challenge if this fight hits the mat. In particular, Baraniewski has won several of his fights by advancing to dominant positions on the ground and getting TKO stoppages. This will be extremely challenging to do against an elite grappler in Aly, so if Baraniewski is going to win, it will likely have to be with distance striking. 

Ultimately, Aly has the more elite skillset. Aly’s striking power gives him ways to win at distance, and if he isn’t finding success there, he has the ability to initiate offensive grappling and get the fight to the ground where he will have a substantial advantage.

Prediction: Mahamed Aly to win by finish

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.