Bowl projections: Texas, Notre Dame fall from College Football Playoff bracket

It’s time to question Texas. The Longhorns’ offense is not where it needs to be if Steve Sarkisian intends on getting this team back to a College Football Playoff semifinal for a third consecutive season. 

Texas has fallen out of our updated 12-team playoff projection after Week 3 following its unimpressive showing against UTEP, another head-scratching performance from a team that entered the campaign as the preseason No. 1. Part of the issues revolve around Arch Manning and offensive line struggles, but much of it falls on the lack of an offensive identity. 

The Texas defense is littered with stars, but the Longhorns must execute more efficiently with their new-look offense or they’ll be heading toward a disappointing ending after once-perceived as a contender.

An instant classic unfolded at Neyland Stadium that ended with Georgia’s 44-41 win over Tennessee in overtime. Any questions surrounding Gunner Stockton’s downfield prowess for the Bulldogs were answered after the first-year starter threw for 304 yards and two touchdown, the second coming on a fourth-and-6 with London Humphreys from 28 yards out with 2:32 to play. A 2-point conversion knotted the score before the Bulldogs won in the extra session.

Texas A&M also joined the SEC’s group of potential playoff teams after toppling Notre Dame on the road with 13 seconds to play. The Irish are out of the mix after losing their first two games of the campaign dating back to the setback against Miami. Speaking of the Hurricanes, they handled South Florida and maintained their standing as our projected ACC champion.

As for Tennessee, this is an elite team. No one was sure after wins over Syracuse and East Tennessee State, but the Vols confirmed that title inside Neyland Stadium against Georgia. Josh Heupel was a step ahead of the opposing coaching staff throughout as his transfer quarterback tossed four touchdown passes before a missed field goal as time expired led to a loss in overtime during an instant classic. There’s a chance these two could meet again — whether that’s in the playoff or league title game — with much football left to be played.

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

First round

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion): Can Ryan Day’s Buckeyes maintain focus the rest of the way as the nation’s team to beat? Unless Ohio State loses to Penn State in November, this group has a glowing opportunity to get back to the playoff as the top overall seed. Two coordinator changes this offseason hasn’t affected these defending national champions whatsoever, and after three weeks, no team looks more complete.

2. Miami (ACC champion): You know what’s scary about this Hurricanes team? Saturday’s destruction of South Florida wasn’t a perfect game from Miami, but it showed just how far ahead the Hurricanes are as one the nation’s hottest teams to open. Carson Beck sidestepped a couple interceptions to throw three touchdown passes, and now he gets to play a dejected Florida squad under Billy Napier next week at home.

3. LSU (SEC champion): This LSU defense is the program’s best in a long time under Blake Baker. The suffocating effort against the Gators resulted in five interceptions from D.J. Lagway, the first three-interception or more game from a Florida quarterback since Emory Jones against Florida State in 2021. LSU’s win at Clemson a few weeks ago isn’t as sexy as it once was, but Brian Kelly will take his “passing grade” to Ole Miss with an unbeaten record in a couple of weeks.

4. Penn State: Now that the preseason is over for the Nittany Lions, we’re going to see if Penn State’s offensive line can handle a pass rush next time out against unbeaten Oregon (Sept. 27). It’s the first of two season-defining games against top 10 competition in the Big Ten for Penn State, whose wins thus far have come against Nevada, FIU and Villanova with little fight from the opposition. Untested through a month of action prior to kickoff with the Ducks is not necessarily a bad thing for Penn State, but it’s hard to accurately power-rate this squad until that one’s finished.

5. Georgia: Punched in the mouth early on the road against the Vols, the Bulldogs responded like a championship program often does to take a fourth-quarter lead before upending Tennessee in overtime to push their streak to nine in the rivalry. The remaining schedule is so treacherous for Georgia that it could finish with three losses and still grab an at-large bid given the selection committee’s new metric for quality wins. For now, however, they’re one of the top two squads in the conference after Week 3.

6. Oregon: The Ducks played a game within three touchdowns for the first time this season at Northwestern, but that’s only because the Wildcats scored twice on Oregon’s 2s in the fourth quarter. Only two teams in the Big Ten match up with the Ducks athletically, and Oregon only has to play one of them this fall (Penn State). There’s a scenario in which the Ducks finish 11-1, do not play in the conference title game and wait to see where they’re placed by the selection committee. After Week 3, we’re going with that.

7. Florida State With Clemson not even on the playoff bubble any longer after a 1-2 start, the Seminoles have ascended to top threat position in the conference behind Miami early this season. Florida State plays the Hurricanes on Oct. 4 and should be unbeaten when that one comes around if the Seminoles are able to beat Kent State and Virginia over the next two weeks. Tommy Castellanos has been electric at quarterback, and Tony White’s defense has played well through eight quarters..

8. Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): Kansas State and Colorado aren’t going to win the Big 12, but projecting the rest of the conference and how these teams will finish is a crapshoot. Despite hitting the 60-point plateau twice, coach Joey McGuire says his team has already faced adversity this season and also has a bone to pick with poll voters for where some teams area ranked ahead of his own. If Texas Tech wins the league, it won’t matter where the Red Raiders are in the polls.

9. Illinois: The Illini are big winners in Week 3 after clobbering Western Michigan and now, it looks like the Big Ten has a path toward a fourth playoff entry following Notre Dame’s loss to Texas A&M. 

10. Texas A&M: Could the Aggies be a playoff Cinderella? They now have a signature road win under Mike Elko after beating Notre Dame in South Bend. After falling to the Irish last season, Texas A&M may have ended Notre Dame’s shot at getting back to the playoff with a last-second victory. 

11. Oklahoma: So far, so good for John Mateer and the Sooners. After dismantling Temple on the heels of its win over Michigan, Oklahoma will be staring at a 5-0 start ahead of the showdown with Texas if it’s able to handle business against Auburn at home next week. And given how the Sooners and Longhorns two have looked the first three weeks, Texas might be the unexpected underdog in that one next month.

12. South Florida (Group of Five champion): The Bulls have emerged from an incredibly difficult nonconference portion of their schedule with wins over Boise State and Florida. The selection committee will give this team a pass for Saturday’s loss at Miami if they win the American and prove to be the Group of Five’s best. Keeping quarterback Byrum Brown healthy the next 2.5 months is pivotal to keep this locomotive on the tracks for Alex Golesh.