The Toronto Blue Jays sit in a first-place tie atop the AL East with the New York Yankees. Barely a month ago, the Jays were eight games back. The Rays were seven back; now they’re only half a game out. In other words, things are getting exciting.
On, May 28 the Yankees had a 7 ½-game lead on the Rays and an eight-game lead over the Blue Jays. They were a runaway betting favorite as well. Since then, heading into Thursday, the Yankees have gone 13-18 while the Rays have gone 20-12 and the Blue Jays are 21-10.
The odds now, via Caesars:
Let’s zero in on the Blue Jays today, though. They have taken down the Yankees three straight games to tie things up in the division, are riding a four-game winning streak and have taken six of their last seven. They have an opportunity to beat the Yankees again on Thursday to move into sole possession of first place. Then they host three games against the Angels before hitting the road to face the White Sox and Athletics before the All-Star break.
That’s a stretch of games where the Blue Jays can really establish themselves as a legitimate AL East frontrunner. They are already contenders and that’s a relatively easy run of games.
How have they turned things around? Well, obviously, the whole team has been better than when it was sitting 26-28 through May 27, but what jumps out is the supporting cast on offense.
That is to say that while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and, to a lesser extent, Bo Bichette, are the centerpieces of the offense, the Jays have gotten big production elsewhere and that well-rounded lineup has seen them on the winning end much more often than not.
Through May 28, the Blue Jays were scoring 3.8 runs per game. Since then, they are averaging 5.9 runs a game, a rather significant uptick.
As noted, both Guerrero and Bichette have been good, but they aren’t the reason for the offensive uprising. A former All-Star and big name is having a bounce-back season and that would be George Springer. In his last 29 games, he’s hitting .317 with a .577 slugging percentage. He’s even been hitting in the two-hole in the series against the Yankees and has been at the center of all the action. He homered twice with seven RBI on Tuesday.
Beyond those guys, how about some of these names and what they’ve done since May 28:
- Ernie Clement in his last 31 games is hitting .377/.417/.533 with 10 doubles, three homers and 25 runs scored.
- Alejandro Kirk, who was an All-Star and great hitter in 2022 but had down years in 2023-24, is back. He’s slashed .340/.405/.505 with four homers and 22 RBI in his last 27 games.
- Addison Barger, a left-handed hitting utility man who had a 68 OPS+ last season as a rookie, is hitting .275 with a .578 slugging percentage in his last 28 games. He has seven doubles, eight home runs, 19 RBI and 24 runs in this span.
- Davis Schneider is a part-time platoon player, but in our manufactured timeframe he’s appeared in 16 games and has hit .286/.400/.548 with two doubles and three home runs in 42 at-bats. He homered twice in Wednesday’s win over the Yankees.
Keep in mind that Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho are both injured right now. Toronto has barely missed them.
In all, here is where the Blue Jays’ offense ranks among the 30 MLB teams since our arbitrary starting point of May 28:
- 2nd in runs
- 2nd in batting average
- 1st in on-base percentage
- 5th in slugging percentage
Before this point in the season, the Blue Jays were a below-average offense. They scored in double digits once before May 28 and have done so six times since, including each of the last two games against the first-place Yankees.
Something kicked into gear for the Jays and it wasn’t the big names but instead the supporting cast. The well-rounded offense is the reason the Blue Jays look like a force right now. If these guys continue to rake, the Blue Jays are going to be a major player for the AL East title and that means a good chance at winning their first pennant since 1993.
