After putting three teams into the playoffs a year ago, the NFC North is again one of the NFL’s most intriguing divisions this offseason. The top sportsbooks seem to think it will once again be the league’s toughest division. The difference in odds to win the North between the favorite (the Detroit Lions) and the biggest longshot (Chicago Bears) is easily the smallest of any of the league’s eight divisions.
Additionally, the Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, where he’s now the head coach, adding even more intrigue and a top storyline when these two rivals meet in Weeks 2 and 18. All eyes will be on Johnson and how he’s able to develop 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
Despite losing Johnson to Chicago and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to the New York Jets, Detroit is the betting favorite to win the NFC North for the third year in a row. The Lions’ win total over/under is 10.5, and Chicago’s isn’t far behind at 8.5.
SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman, who is 83-66-3 (plus $1,217 for $100 players) over the past four NFL seasons, has crunched the numbers for the upcoming season, analyzed the data and found value on the win totals of Detroit, Chicago and two other teams. Here are his four NFL win total best bets:
Chicago Bears wins line: 8.5
- Best Bet: Over 8.5 (+120, 2 units)
The big piece of news with the Bears this offseason is getting Johnson to leave the Lions to take the head coaching job in Chicago. His offenses have been dynamite the last few years, and his play-calling approach should help boost a team that desperately needs it on that side of the ball. Look for a big step forward from second-year QB Caleb Williams.
Chicago has addressed its offensive line issues by acquiring potential starters, including All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, and has a strong group of playmakers like D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift. The defense has also improved with Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo joining the line, while All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson anchors the secondary. Dennis Allen begins his role as the defensive coordinator in his 29th season. I expect significant improvements from a defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed per game last season.
Chicago went 1-5 in games decided by three or fewer points and 3-7 in games decided by seven or fewer, indicating bad luck in close contests. The Bears’ revamped roster, improved quarterback play and coaching upgrades look promising for at least nine wins.
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Los Angeles Chargers wins line: 9.5
- Best bet: Over 9.5 (-110, 2 units)
Justin Herbert is still one of the league’s best young quarterbacks, and adding 2024 breakout guard Mekhi Becton enhances an offensive line featuring four former first-round picks, though the team just lost star left tackle Rashawn Slater for the year due to a knee injury. The Chargers have two new running backs in Najee Harris and rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton to give the ground game a boost, and that aspect of LA’s offense needs it as it was mediocre last year, averaging 110.7 yards per game, good for a finish of 17th. Teams will find it more difficult to stack the box and force Herbert into tough throws this season, which he has proven capable of handling. Mike Williams returns alongside rookie Tre Harris and second-year standout Ladd McConkey, giving Herbert diverse offensive weapons.
Despite the departures of edge rusher Joey Bosa and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., the defense looks strong with new additions like CB Donte Jackson and several draft picks. With strong motivation following a playoff disappointment, the well-coached and talented Chargers are expected to secure at least 10 wins and compete for a top AFC seed.
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Detroit Lions wins line: 10.5
- Best bet: Under 10.5 (-115, 2 units)
The Lions face the most challenging schedule in 2025, with 11 games against playoff teams from last season. Detroit must adjust to new coordinators on both sides of the ball following the departures of Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Additionally, the defense lost five Week 1 starters from the 2024 season. The road schedule is particularly brutal, featuring games at Cincinnati, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams—all teams with win totals of 9.5 or higher.
I wasn’t a fan of the Lions’ draft, giving it a C+ grade, after three consecutive years of brilliant picks. The offense should be fine with the former passing game coordinator for the Broncos, John Morton, taking over. Injury regression is a legitimate concern for the offense after staying relatively healthy last season. My model predicts the Lions will have a 9.7-win season in a highly competitive division.
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Las Vegas Raiders wins line: 7.5
- Best bet: 7.5 (-160, 1 unit)
The Las Vegas Raiders face significant challenges in a loaded AFC West with question marks at receiver and in their secondary. Even with Geno Smith at quarterback and veteran head coach Pete Carroll, the underwhelming supporting cast makes eight wins unlikely. The Raiders face the AFC and NFC West divisions (read: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy, among others) and project as favorites in only five games. The team could head into their bye week with a record of 0-7 after playing four challenging road games at the beginning of the season: against the Patriots, Commanders, Colts and Chiefs.
It is hard to see the Raiders achieving eight wins, much less seven. My model reveals that the Raiders are projected to finish with fewer than 7.5 wins 69.7% of the time, with five to six wins being the most likely outcome.
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