On Sunday, No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will play each other for the Wimbledon title, only a month after the two faced off in an epic battle at the French Open.
Alcaraz won in Paris and is the two-time defending champion at Wimbledon. Will that give him the edge? Our experts weigh in on how each could pull off the victory.
What can Alcaraz do to defeat Sinner?
D’Arcy Maine: Alcaraz has proved he can beat Sinner when the stakes are highest, and he knows what it takes to win at Wimbledon. After he defeated Taylor Fritz in the semifinals Friday, Fritz complimented Alcaraz’s versatility, “his ability to win in so many ways,” and how he can make adjustments on the fly.
Those traits were key in Alcaraz’s win over Sinner at the French Open and they will be equally valuable Sunday. Undefeated in his previous five major finals, Alcaraz has remarkable composure and fight, especially for being just 22, and if he is able to continue to find answers for everything Sinner hits his way by utilizing his staggering variety, this is his match to win.
Bill Connelly: Same thing I said before the French Open final: Keep going for it. Heading into that match, the bar was basically “hit winners on over 20% of your points, and you’ll beat Sinner,” and after hitting just 12.9% in the first two sets, Alcaraz was at 21.7% in the last three (25.0% in the fifth set).
If you don’t play a big game and go for winners, Sinner will grind you into dust. Alcaraz honestly hasn’t been incredibly sharp in this tournament, dropping at least one set in four of six matches and clearing that 20% bar only twice (in his two straight-set wins, naturally). But he’s pretty good at rising to the occasion — five Slam finals, five wins — so one assumes he’ll be ready to swing big.
Simon Cambers: Do what he always does: Find a way to win, with whatever strategy is required. Sinner will hit hard, on both wings, so the key for Alcaraz is to use his variety. His drop shot will be important, as will be his use of serve-and-volley, if and when the opportunity arises. Overall, he needs to serve as well as he did against Fritz in the semis; if he does that, he’ll take so much pressure off his second serve, which is vital as Sinner will hammer anything he has a look at. Alcaraz has the edge in movement on grass so he’ll look to exploit that, coming forward when he can. If he does that, he’ll be in control.
What can Sinner do to defeat Alcaraz?
Maine: Trust himself. His elbow is showing no signs of injury at this point, so it’s going to be largely mental for Sinner on Sunday. It’s his first Wimbledon final and, of course, he’s just over a month removed from what happened in Paris. There understandably will be nerves and he will likely have doubts, especially as he is well aware he hasn’t defeated Alcaraz since 2023.
How can he stop those doubts from creeping in and what will he do if they come into play? Like he did when he was down a break in the third set Friday against Novak Djokovic and his forehand began to (briefly) betray him, Sinner kept fighting, winning points in the long rallies and stifling all signs of Djokovic’s momentum to then win five straight games. He will need to bring that same mentality — and more — against Alcaraz.
Except for his fourth-round match against Grigor Dimitrov, Sinner has been mostly unstoppable and hasn’t lost a set throughout the fortnight. He has the game and the ability, and his movement and footwork continue to get better on grass with every match. He was seemingly everywhere on the court against Djokovic. If he can bring the same level he has shown for most of the tournament, and be equally resilient and mentally strong, he has a chance.
Connelly: Dominate on serve. While Alcaraz has been serving better and better over the course of the tournament — he won 64% of his service points in the first three rounds and 76% in the next three against higher-ranked competition — his return game has come and gone. In the five sets he has dropped at Wimbledon, he has basically allowed opponents to serve as effectively as he does. That was especially true in the semifinal against Fritz, in which Fritz won 83% of his service points while winning the second set, and 74% while sending the fourth set to a tiebreaker.
Against Djokovic, maybe the best returner of all time, in the semifinals, Sinner landed his first serve 74% of the time and won 77% of his service points. He almost beat Alcaraz at the French Open despite landing only 54% of his first serves last month, and he’ll save himself a lot of trouble if he can raise that number to more normal levels and control the game on serve.
Cambers: Remind himself how far he’s come to this point and tell himself he is the underdog. The pressure is probably more on Alcaraz to win a third straight title than it is for Sinner to perform in his first Wimbledon final, so that should ease any mental stresses that will inevitably come. Sinner’s groundstrokes are so hard that he can hit through anyone, and if he can get a look at enough second serves, he’ll really fancy his chances.
What’s fascinating is how quickly Sinner has shrugged off the enormous disappointment of holding three match points against Alcaraz in the final at Roland Garros, to reach the Wimbledon final. In some ways, maybe banging his elbow against Dimitrov has actually helped him; instead of worrying about the mental baggage of Paris, he’s focused on his body and let the tennis just flow.
If he returns the Alcaraz first serve well, he’s going to have a big chance here. The grass is hard this year, after all the dry weather, which will help him too. Of course he’ll need to serve well, and if he can also come forward a little more than he has, he’ll keep Alcaraz pinned back.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: The winner will be the one who is physically feeling their best on the day, after two weeks of grueling grass-court pressure tennis. Obviously, Alcaraz has the upper hand psychologically at the moment, but we saw many stages of the Big Three rivalries over the 20 years, so expect the same in this exceptional rivalry.
Alcaraz has the edge both on grass and the rivalry at the moment, but Sinner can start to flip that on Sunday, especially if his elbow is fine and he feels more comfortable moving on the grass at the close of the fortnight. Tennis is lucky to have these two athletes leading men’s tennis, and I can’t wait to watch. The Roland Garros final is an impossible act to follow, but let’s see what these two phenoms can produce.
Maine: Sinner has more motivation than ever, and likely more confidence and endurance now than he did at the French Open, but experience will ultimately help Alcaraz in the tightest moments of the match. While I don’t think it will go past the five-hour mark like the final in Paris, I do think it could easily go to a deciding set, and that favors Alcaraz, who has a ridiculous 14-1 record in five-setters and is 10-1 in matches that extend past three hours and 50 minutes (compared to 0-7 for Sinner). Alcaraz in five, dramatic, highlight-filled sets.
Connelly: On the natural surfaces, where Alcaraz has had a clear advantage over Sinner (and everyone else in the world), I feel like Sinner has made up a lot of ground in a short amount of time. He actually won one more point than Alcaraz in their French Open battle, and while he was injured and wobbly — and lucky — against Dimitrov in the fourth round, he has been virtually automatic since.
Alcaraz’s ceiling is higher than basically anything we’ve ever seen, and the way he conjured up absolute perfection at the exact moment he needed to in Paris was awe-inspiring. But Sinner’s just so steady, and he seems to still be improving. Sinner in four.
Cambers: I picked Alcaraz at the start, which was hardly a stretch, given his two titles in a row here. But he’s shown at every turn why he’s the best player in the world on grass, he moves better than anyone, he mixes things up incredibly well and he has that charisma that gets the crowd on his side right from the first ball.
Sinner is a phenomenal player and no one hits the ball harder. But on grass, the subtleties required fall more in Alcaraz’s wheelhouse. I can see it being long — of course — but the fact that he’s won their last five matches is a huge psychological advantage for him. Even if Sinner has done brilliantly to shrug off what happened in Paris, Alcaraz has the mental boost of winning from match points down in his pocket, ready to pull out if and when he needs it. It could go five, but I’ll say Alcaraz in four tight sets.
