As Keir Starmer approaches his first anniversary in Downing Street, there will be several things he wishes he had done differently. But before he can contemplate that July milestone, he faces a busy month strewn with political bear traps.
June has proven a difficult time for successive prime ministers: Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak all had to contend with deeply unhappy parliamentary parties reeling from heavy local and European election losses.
While the mood among Labour MPs is nowhere near as mutinous, they too are bruised from a difficult set of local election results in England in May and the surge of Reform UK. “There is more than the usual amount of grumbling and discontent,” a government source said.
One unexpected ray of light was the result of the Holyrood byelection in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse on Friday. Labour secured a surprise victory, knocking the Scottish National party into second place and restoring some hope in Labour’s fortunes ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections. One MP said the result was “humiliating” for the SNP.
It is certainly a welcome win for Downing Street as Labour MPs brace for more bad news and a series of contentious debates this month. “They know that the spending review is going to be really hard,” a government source said.
The spending review on 11 June, which will set out multi-year departmental budgets after months of tense negotiations between the Treasury and cabinet ministers, will be a make-or-break moment for Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Downing Street is trying to grasp the nettle by putting plans for capital investment in underserved parts of the country at the centre of the narrative. But government strategists are braced for a wave of discontent once the data tables are published revealing cuts across unprotected departments.
The most highly anticipated parliamentary moment is the first Commons vote on the government’s welfare measures, including deep cuts to disability benefits. Labour whips are seeking to minimise the size of the rebellion after dozens of MPs signed a letter saying they found the proposals impossible to support. Officials say the vote will take place in the second half of June and have repeatedly denied rumours that it could be delayed to the autumn.
Officials have also pencilled in the publication of a number of government strategies and reviews that have the potential to draw backlash. The delayed China audit, which fulfils a Labour manifesto commitment to appraise China’s role in UK supply chains and what challenges and opportunities that poses, is due later this month.
Downing Street is sensitive to criticism over its rapprochement with Beijing, which will come under scrutiny as a number of Chinese ministers and officials arrive in the UK on official trips this month. One question relates to China’s place in the foreign influence registration scheme, which remains unresolved amid long-running tensions between the Treasury and the Home Office.
The government also plans to publish its industrial strategy in the second half of June. Strategists see this document as key to Labour’s political fightback against Nigel Farage and want to use it to build the narrative of drumming up investment after the spending review, including in defence.
Earlier in the spring there were murmurings among business figures and government insiders who feared the document would be underwhelming and that Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, had been too busy negotiating a succession of trade deals with the US, EU and India. Ministers have been warned that the strategy must set out a plan to reduce the UK’s high energy costs for companies, on the basis that these are a major obstacle to growth.
Finally, the government’s 10-year plan for the NHS in England is expected either in late June or in July, and is also considered key to Labour’s electoral prospects. It is expected to set out plans to improve the NHS app.
In the Commons there are three crunch votes expected to take place this month. One is over the assisted dying bill sponsored by the Labour backbencher Kim Leadbeater, which seeks to give terminally ill people with less than six months left the right to end their own lives.
The proposed legislation has opened a bitter divide in the parliamentary Labour party and sparked concerns in Downing Street that arguments over the bill are distracting from the government’s core agenda. Starmer, who in the past has expressed support for changing the law, voted in favour of the bill at its second reading and indicated recently that his position hadn’t changed. The Commons will consider amendments to the bill on 13 June and is expected to vote on it again on 20 June.
Another difficult moral question due to be considered by MPs this month is whether to decriminalise abortion in England and Wales. Several women in recent years have found themselves in the dock for ending their pregnancies outside the strict legal parameters of the Abortion Act 1967. Two Labour backbenchers are putting forward amendments to the crime and policing bill, which is due to return to the Commons in a fortnight.
“There’s lots of little bumps in the road – it’s quite an important few weeks,” a Labour source said. The upside for Starmer is that if he succeeds in overcoming this series of hurdles fairly smoothly, the mood in government and the PLP will start to improve before summer recess. If he doesn’t, any celebrations to mark his first year in power will be pretty muted.
