Much like with brand-new watches, prices on the secondary market are increasing. “They have already started going up and I think will continue to do so,” Kozubek said over text. Customers are buying watches like a hot stock, getting in now because they fear prices will be even more bloated later. “People feel like prices will go up, so they are buying more now,” Kozubek said.
The potential for looming price increases have only stoked urgency among watch collectors. “Customers may be accelerating their purchases now to avoid higher prices later, especially for big-ticket items like Rolex and other Swiss brands, which could jump 10 to 25% in price if and when the tariffs hit,” Altieri said. Altieri pointed out another interesting wrinkle there: Some brands, like Rolex, are more likely to be affected than others.
What will be hit the hardest by price increases? Most likely the blue chip watches. If customers are making purchases with the expectation they won’t be able to get them cheaper later, they’re most likely steering toward the safe watches from brands like Rolex.
However, while all the dealers I spoke with agree on the market’s strength, not all of them believe it’s for the same reason. When I asked Wind Vintage’s Eric Wind if he thought tariffs were pushing strong sales, the dealer simply responded, “Nope.”
That doesn’t mean Wind isn’t seeing the same growth as his fellow dealers. “I would say right around May 9 or so things really picked up,” he texted me. So, what happened on May 9? Last-minute Mother’s Day gifts, of course. I’m kidding. The Geneva auctions kicked up at that time, and the encouragingly good results reverberated throughout the industry, according to Wind.
The other main driver? The tariffs impacted the price of watches, but it also had a calamitous effect on the economy. In early April, the value of the Dow Jones stock market index dropped below $40,000 and didn’t return above that benchmark until late in the month. “I think the Dow Jones being over $40K is really the key,” Wind said. “People are feeling good about the economy.”
In early April, even before the tariffs, there weren’t many reasons to feel optimistic about the watch industry. The market has been soft ever since the boom time of the pandemic, when people were flipping watches at unsustainably high prices. Now, it seems that a combination of factors—whether it’s the stabilizing economy or pre-tariff scaries—are jolting collectors into action.
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