Ayrna Sabalenka is one win away from defending her maiden US Open title. On Thursday night, the 27-year-old Belarusian overcame an unplanned layoff and a scratchy opening set to dismiss familiar foe Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the first women’s semi-final inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.
The victory, Sabalenka’s third-straight in the US Open semis, doesn’t just set her up to claim her first grand slam title this season. With a successful defense on Saturday, she would become the first player to repeat as women’s champion at Flushing Meadows since Serena Williams’s run of titles from 2012 through to 2014.
“It was a really tough match,” Sabalenka said on court afterward. “I had to work hard to get this win. She’s such a great player, such a great fighter. Hopefully I can go all the way again. And thank you guys for bringing the best atmosphere.”
On Saturday, Sabalenka will face Amanda Anisimova, who holds a 6-3 head-to-head matchup edge and most recently beat Sabalenka in three sets to advance to this year’s Wimbledon final. Sabalenka’s win restores the momentum she lost when Marketa Vondrousova pulled out of their quarter-final on Tuesday, leaving the world No 1 with some unexpected time off.
Certainly, the fourth-seeded Pegula entered the semi-final bent on avenging her loss to Sabalenka in the final here last year, which was closer than the two-set score suggests. In that match Sabalenka was able to win the big points by ambushing Pegula with her drop shot. This time, however, the American wasn’t just alert for the trap; she sprung one of her own by surprising her opponent with net grazing groundstrokes that had Sabalenka almost dropping to one knee to dig them off the baseline with her slice backhand. That tactic and some more canny redirection is how Pegula broke Sabalenka to cut into the Belarusian’s early 4-2 lead. She broke her again on the way to taking her first set off Sabalenka since they last played each other here during Covid – when the Billie Jean National Tennis Center played emergency host to the Cincinnati Open.
But Sabalenka quickly righted the ship, winning the next three games to put pressure on Pegula, who was pushed out of her low-risk, steady-reward game and forced into going for broke. Once out of her element, and pressed to play at a faster pace with the roof closed because of the threat of rain, she became more vulnerable to Sabalenka’s drop shot bushwhacks and was much shakier on serve. At 5ft 7in, Pegula doesn’t produce the most powerful serve, but she can place it with pinpoint accuracy. What’s more, she entered Thursday night ranked second in the tournament in second-serve points won. Thing is: Sabalenka had also distinguished herself as the tournament’s second-best service returner.
Ultimately, it was Sabalenka’s 43 winners against Pegula’s 32 forced errors that proved the American’s undoing. She struggled to score points on Sabalenka’s serve, had no answer for her opponent’s ferocious power and no tricks left to break her focus. Historically in these big matches, Sabalenka is the one who gives crowds reason to stay alert for the potential of an emotional outburst. This time, it was the usually calm Pegula who showed flashes of frustration. Once again, her steady play was no match for Sabalenka, who with every victory puts her early immature streaks in rearview while making her bid for all-time great status.
“There were some things, very small things, I could have done differently in the end,” Pegula said. “But if she’s going to come out and I was hitting some good returns and she’s going to blast first-ball winners, literally some of them on the line, I don’t know what I’m supposed to do about that.”
Sabalenka has built up such a lead in the WTA rankings that she will retain the No 1 spot no matter what happens on Saturday, or the rest of the season – which might be a consolation if she hadn’t already made clear that she prizes titles over rankings. A victory on Saturday would put Sabalenka at 99 career wins in grand slam main draws. No, it’s not the nice, round number –not yet. But one gets the sense that won’t stop her from working any harder for it.
