30C possible on Monday but strong winds and rain lie ahead

Bank holiday Monday could bring 30C sunshine to parts of the UK, before blustery wind and rain moves in during the week.

The Midlands is set to see the highest temperature while Wales may be in store for its hottest late August Bank Holiday on record.

It comes after the Met Office said last week that even though the summer is yet to be over, it was already on track to be among the country’s hottest on record.

But overnight into Tuesday, the remnants of hurricane Erin – which has since weakened – are forecast to bring more unsettled, wet and windy conditions initially to Northern Ireland and then across most of the UK.

In southern England, dry, cloudy, 26C conditions are expected for the rest of the bank holiday. The best of the blue sky is likely to be in the Midlands, where up to 29C or 30C is possible on Monday.

The two million people expected to attend Notting Hill Carnival in west London on Sunday and Monday can therefore expect plenty of warm weather, as can those attending Reading and Leeds, Creamfields in Cheshire, and All Points East in the capital’s Victoria Park this weekend.

And in Wales, it could be a historic late August bank holiday weekend as the current hottest temperature recorded for this period is 26.5C at Crossway in 1991 – and parts of eastern Wales could experience 27C temperatures this time around.

As the weather begins to turn cooler along with the wet and wind in many parts of the UK on Tuesday, eastern areas of England are expected to hold onto warmth for one last day in the current spell with 26C.

However, from midweek onwards, things turn more widely unsettled and potentially stormy with stronger winds and some heavy, thundery downpours at times – though forecasts for the second half of the week remain uncertain at this stage.

Hurricane Erin – which skirted the Caribbean and east coast of the US this week – has helped push warm, tropical air towards the UK over the weekend, but will also help end that when the remnants of the hurricane get closer.

The Met Office expects rain to persist throughout the rest of the week, though strong winds will stay offshore.

Those hoping to make the most of the warm weather while it lasts may have to grapple with travel delays and cancellations.

A strike on the CrossCountry network could make returning from Leeds festival tricky, while engineering works will mean no LNER trains in or out of London King’s Cross.

Customers are being told not to travel on any CrossCountry routes, aside from those from Birmingham towards Penzance, Paignton, Bournemouth and Guildford.

The CrossCountry strike will continue on Monday, when there will be no trains between Birmingham, Reading and the south coast of England. There will also be no service between Leicester, Cambridge and Stansted Airport.

The RNLI also warned people planning a trip to the coast to use lifeguarded beaches and to beware of rough seas.

Prolonged dry periods throughout this summer have led to a significant shortfall of water in England, with hosepipe bans declared for millions – some of which are set to remain into the winter.

This means the UK is on course for one of its worst harvests on record, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a statutory research organisation.

While linking climate change with specific individual weather events can be difficult, scientists say that climate change is generally making bouts of hot weather longer, more intense and more frequent.

Four summer heatwaves in quick succession after an unusually warm spring suggests climate change is having some effect on 2025’s weather.