When it comes to the NFL preseason, the games are generally viewed as being pretty meaningless. If a team has a good presason, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be good during the regular season and if you need proof, just ask the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns about that. Both teams went 4-0 in the preseason before going 0-16 in the regular-season.
Although the preseason doesn’t really serve as a good predictor for the regular season, there has been one stat that has somehow translated to regular-season success and that’s point differential. And if you’re a fan of the New York Giants, this is where you’re going to want to start paying attention.
Thanks to their 42-10 win over the New England Patriots on Thursday night, the Giants will finish the preseason with a record of 3-0. In those three games, the Giants outscored their opponents by 60 points.
The reason that’s notable is because over the past 16 years, a point differential of 60 seems to be the magic number when trying to figure out if a team’s preseason success will translate to the regular season.
The Giants are the eighth team since 2009 to finish a preseason with a point differential of +60 or more, and of the seven previous teams, SIX of them made the playoffs, including two teams that went on to win the Super Bowl.
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Tyler Sullivan
Also, in a nice twist: Russell Wilson was the starting quarterback for two of the seven teams on the list and he’ll be the Giants’ starter in Week 1.
Let’s check out the other seven teams on the list:
- Preseason record: 3-1
- Point differential: +69
- Regular-season: 13-3
The Saints started the regular season 13-0 on their way to winning the NFC South. In the playoffs, things got even better as they ended up winning the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
2011 Detroit Lions
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +67
- Regular-season: 10-6
After going 11 years without a playoff berth, the Lions drought finally ended. It came during a season where they blew everyone out in the preseason.
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +78
- Regular-season: 11-5
During Russell Wilson’s rookie year, the Seahawks blew out everyone in the preseason and then proceeded to also dominate during the regular season. After finishing second in the NFC West, the Seahawks won a wild-card playoff game before losing, 30-28, in the divisional round to Atlanta. The Falcons hit a 49-yard field goal with eight seconds left to clinch the win.
2013 Seattle Seahawks
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +73
- Regular-season: 13-3
Pete Carroll clearly took his preseason football seriously, because for the second straight year, not only did the Seahawks go 4-0 in the preseason, but they once again outscored their opponents by at least 70 points. The 2013 season ended with Carroll and the Seahawks hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after beating the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.
2014 Denver Broncos
- Preseason record: 3-1
- Point differential: +62
- Regular-season: 12-4
During Peyton manning’s penultimate season in Denver, the Broncos rolled through the preseason with two of their three wins coming by at least 24 points. Their preseason dominance translated to the regular season with Denver winning the AFC West. However, they did get upset by the Colts in the divisional round of the playoffs.
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +66
- Regular-season: 14-2
John Harbaugh loves to play to win in the preseason and we know that because Baltimore once won an NFL-record 24 straight preseason games. During that streak, this was the only season where the Ravens outscored their preseason opponents by at least 60 points. In the regular season, not only did the Ravens finish with the best record in the NFL, but Lamar Jackson also won MVP.
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +68
- Regular-season: 5-12
The Bears are the only team over the past 16 years to outscore their opponents by at least 60 points in the preseason and NOT make the playoffs. Although they went 5-12, they were a lot closer to making the postseason than their record might suggest. This team lost seven games by one score, including an NFL-high FIVE losses that came by three points or less. The Bears were 4-2 at one point last season and would have been 5-2 if they could have stopped Jayden Daniels from completing a Hail Mary against them in Week 8. The Bears also had a missed field goal on the final play in a 20-19 loss against the Packers in Week 11. And let’s not forget, they had the clock run out on them in a three-point Thanksgiving loss to the Lions. It might sound crazy to say, but this team was just a few plays away from going 9-8 or even 10-7.
Anyway, even with Chicago’s five-win season, the seven teams above still managed to win an average of 11.1 games per season.
The Giants are now the eighth team to outscore their preseason opponents by 60 or more points since 2009. If history holds, that means they’ll likely be headed to at least the playoffs. Of course, it won’t be easy, the Giants do have the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this year.
If you go back 20 years, there would only be one other team added to this list: The 2006 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals were 8-5 at one point and had to win just one of their final three games to make the playoffs, but they fell apart down the stretch, which including two heartbreaking losses over their final two games. In Week 16, they botched an extra point attempt with under a minute left in a 24-23 loss to the Broncos. In Week 17, they lost 23-17 to the Steelers in overtime after Pittsburgh scored on a 67-yard touchdown pass just 90 seconds into OT.
Of the eight teams over the past 20 years to outscore their opponents by 60 points or more in the preseason, seven have finished with a record of .500 or better, six have made the playoffs and only the Bears have finished under .500.
