Will Tibetan spiritual leader reveal succession plan as he turns 90?

Hundreds of followers of the Dalai Lama have gathered in northern India for the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader’s 90th birthday, amid growing anticipation that he could give a clue about his eventual successor.

The Dalai Lama is due to release a video message and a statement on Wednesday, his office has told the BBC, although there’s no clarity on what he will say.

The Dalai Lama fled across the border to India in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet.

He set up a government-in-exile in the northern Indian hill town of Dharamsala and has been seen as an alternative source of power for those who resent Beijing’s tight control of Tibet.

The milestone birthday on Sunday will be preceded by the three-day 15th Tibetan Religious Conference, starting on Wednesday morning. Celebrations began on Monday – the Dalai Lama’s birthday according to the Tibetan lunar calendar.

Celebrations will be attended by more than 7,000 guests, including a number of Indian ministers. On Monday, photos showed the Dalai Lama blessing Hollywood actor Richard Gere, a long-time follower.

The Dalai Lama, who had earlier said he would release details about his succession around his 90th birthday, told a gathering on Monday that “there will be some kind of a framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas”. He did not elaborate.

In the past, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning spiritual head of Tibetan Buddhism has been torn between whether to continue with the 600-year-old institution or not. A few years ago, he said his successor might be a girl, or that there might be no successor at all.

But in recent years, he has also said that if there’s widespread support among Tibetans-in-exile for the post – which there is – then it would continue and his office would choose a successor.

He has always insisted that his successor would be born outside China, something that has angered Beijing.

Even though the Dalai Lama has always advocated a “middle way” to resolve the status of Tibet – genuine self-rule within China – Beijing regards him as a separatist. It says the standard of living of people in Tibet has greatly improved under its rule.

Youdon Aukatsang, an MP in the Tibetan parliament-in-exile, said she did not expect “a clear-cut procedure would be laid down” this week.

“I think everyone is kind of anticipating some kind of revelation from His Holiness about his reincarnation. But I do not expect a very specific kind of revelation,” she told the BBC.

The present Dalai Lama, she said, “is a binding and unifying force for the Tibetan movement” and some Tibetans feel somebody should be recognised soon as his successor because they worry that there may be an impact on the community and the movement going forward.

“The Dalai Lama institution is very important for the Tibetan struggle. It’s also a symbol of Tibetan identity and a beacon of our spiritual refuge. That will continue. I think there will be a vacuum, but we have to continue, we don’t have a choice,” she said.

“We have very, very big shoes to fill but we have to fill them, right? I think many people will have to get into that role, one person will not be enough.”

Experts, however, say if he does announce a successor, then China is also expected to name its own Dalai Lama.

“China will argue that only the Communist Party of China based in Beijing has the authority to find the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama,” Dibyesh Anand, professor of International Relations at the University of Westminster, told the BBC.

“After a period of a few months or a few years, they will have their own proteges identify a small boy as the next Dalai Lama and impose that. Of course, a majority of Tibetans are going to reject it and the majority of people in the world are going to make fun of it. But remember China has immense authority in terms of resources so they will try to impose that.”

Ms Aukatsang says that “despite all these years of trying to control the hearts and minds of Tibetan people inside Tibet”, Beijing has “completely failed”.

A Dalai Lama chosen by China, she says, “will not be recognised, not only by the Tibetans but the world will not recognise it because China doesn’t have the legitimacy to find the future Dalai Lama”.

“We are concerned but we know that irrespective of our concern, China will come up with their own Dalai Lama, we will call it the Chinese-recognised Dalai Lama. I am not worried that Dalai Lama will have any credibility in the Tibetan world or the Buddhist world.”

Tibetan Buddhists believe that their senior monks are reincarnated and a Dalai Lama is chosen by Buddhist officials if they are convinced that the one they are choosing harbours the soul of his predecessor.

The present – 14th – Dalai Lama was born on 6 July 1935 in a small Tibetan village in a farmer family and was named Lhamo Dhondub. When he was two years old, a search party of Buddhist officials recognised him as the reincarnation of the 13 previous Dalai Lamas.

According to his official biography, the clinching evidence came when the officials showed him a number of possessions that had belonged to his predecessor. The toddler correctly identified items belonging to the 13th Dalai Lama saying, “It’s mine. It’s mine”.

Enthroned before he turned four, he was educated at a Tibetan monastery and has a doctorate of Buddhist philosophy.

But in 1950, when he was 15, the troops of Mao Zedong’s newly-installed Communist government marched into Tibet. A year later, China drew up a 17-point agreement legitimising Tibet’s incorporation into China.

A Tibetan revolt in 1959, seeking an end to Chinese rule, was crushed and thousands of protesters were killed.

The Dalai Lama fled to India on foot along with 10,000 followers and settled in Dharamsala, running a government-in-exile from there. In 2011, he gave up his political role but remains Tibetan Buddhism’s top spiritual leader.

Some of those who fled alongside him still dream of going home to Tibet.

“My faith is that I will return to Tibet. If not me, my younger generations will definitely return,” said Lobsang Choedon, 84, who attended Monday’s celebrations.

Choedon’s daughter and grandchildren were all born – and have spent their entire lives – in India. Nevertheless, her 15-year-old grandson Ngawang Lhundup feels deeply connected to his ancestral homeland.

He’s been listening to stories about Tibet since he was a child and says he would consider visiting Tibet even though it’s under Chinese rule.

“But if it was free from the Chinese invasion, I would be more than delighted to go back to Tibet.”