The biggest MMA event of the summer is here as UFC is back in Las Vegas to celebrate International Fight Week. The promotion caps off an incredible week in Sin City on Saturday night with UFC 317, which is headlined by a pair of big title fights.
In the main event, former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria makes the move to lightweight, where he’ll take on former champ Charles Oliveira for the vacant title. Topuria vacated his featherweight title to pursue lightweight glory and he will enter the Octagon as a considerable favorite against Oliveira.
The flyweight title fight, meanwhile, features another P4P great in Alexandre Pantoja, who is looking for his fourth defense of the crown. The Brazilian has cleaned out the majority of the 125-pound class as he owns wins over the majority of the ranked opponents in the division. He gets a fresh face in Kai Kara-France, but the New Zealand native is just 1-2 in his last three fights. He scored a stunning knockout of Steve Erceg last time out to earn this opportunity.
With two titles on the line and meaningful action across other weight classes, there is sure to be plenty of interest at sportsbooks around the country and we’re here to give our picks for the best bets for each of the five UFC 317 main card fights.
After a slightly disappointing 2-3 result for our best bets for UFC 316, our 2025 record still sits respectably at 16-12. We’ll look to get our roll going again on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s picks with odds via DraftKings.
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Payton Talbott +3.5 (-150)
I’m a Talbott believer, even after a pretty miserable showing in defeat against Raoni Barcelos in January. Talbott was a -1050 favorite in that fight, but had no answer to being taken down repeatedly. Talbott was the better man on the feet that night, but that doesn’t matter when you’re not able to stay standing.
Lima’s takedowns are solid and that’s obviously the path to victory for him, especially if Talbott didn’t make some big changes since January. Talbott is young and talented and every round will start on the feet, which means he could get his offense rolling before Lima closes distance. We’re playing it safe here with the point spread, getting a win on any form of a Talbott win, as well as if he loses by less than 4 points when the three official scorecards are added together. I don’t see Lima getting the finish, even if he is able to execute a steady stream of takedowns throughout the fight and Talbott likely will have enough moments to at least win one round.
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Fight to go the distance: No (-165)
It’s wild how much things can change in a few years. In 2022, Dariush was riding an eight-fight winning streak and hovering around a title shot while Moicano was positioned as a capable but not elite lightweight. Now, Dariush has lost back-to-back fights by first-round knockout, and Moicano is coming off a loss in a title fight (Dariush never got that title fight he was waiting for).
Dariush is still the more well-rounded fighter, but he was quickly taken out by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and now you have to wonder if he’s damaged goods. Dariush has been stopped by KO or TKO five times and submitted once. Moicano has been stopped by KO or TKO three times and submitted twice. That’s enough shared vulnerability to err on the side of the fight not reaching the scorecards when there are so many other questions surrounding the bout.
UFC 317 fight card: Renato Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush among best non-title fights to watch this weekend
Shakiel Mahjouri
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Brandon Royval +3.5 (-200)
At 23, Van is an exciting prospect. After starting his UFC career with three wins, Van suffered a setback when he lost to Charles Johnson by knockout. He has since won four fights, including his impressive stoppage of Bruno Gustavo da Silva in his most recent fight. That fight came just weeks ago on June 7. That is a very quick turnaround to fight someone as experienced as Royval.
Royval is 7-3 in his UFC career, with those losses coming against former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and current flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja (twice). Royval is a very good striker who can exploit some of Van’s defensive liabilities. We’ll again play it safe with the point spread here as Van is talented enough to win, but Royval isn’t going to get completely run over. The Royval moneyline is also a solid play at -102.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja moneyline (-238)
This fight is pretty basic on its face. Kara-France is going to want to keep the fight on the feet and strike, while Pantoja will be using his striking to create opportunities to score takedowns and work his top game. Kara-France has good enough striking to take advantage of any huge openings left by Pantoja, but Pantoja is so good at what he does that it’s likely Kara-France would have to land big, fight-altering shots with any opportunity that presents itself.
Pantoja has a way of just relentlessly imposing his will on opponents. He averages 2.74 completed takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. While Kara-France has 88% takedown defense, those numbers are against fighters who aren’t on Pantoja’s level. We can get the champ under our -250 barrier and we’re going to take it.
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira moneyline (+350)
This is a matter of principle. Oliveira is a very accomplished fighter whose only recent losses came against the dominant Islam Makhachev and in a very close decision against Arman Tsarukyan. Oliveira being a +350 underdog against Topuria as Topuria comes up in weight.
Topuria is a favorite for legitimate reasons as an explosive and dangerous fighter in every facet of the game. But Oliveira at +350 is such a wide line that it becomes the kind of play that’s too enticing to pass up. The only other line that feels worth a play would be Topuria via KO/TKO/DQ at -175. Take your pick on Topuria by knockout or taking a chance on the upset by the UFC’s greatest finisher ever. I’m choosing to take the value.
Who wins UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
