About three hours and 45 minutes into his duel with Carlos Alcaraz three weeks ago, Jannik Sinner lowered himself into his return stance for what he hoped would be the last rally of a near-flawless fortnight. Sinner held three championship points for what would be one of the most monumental victories of his career.
Just one of those three would have earned him a first grand slam title away from hard courts and redefined the terms of engagement with Alcaraz, the only player to beat him for 10 months. Sinner would then have drawn level with the Spaniard on four grand slam titles.
The margins that determine success have always been precarious but few occasions exemplified this like Paris. Instead of Sinner reinforcing his status as the world’s best, Alcaraz produced another legendary moment in his young career with one of the greatest comebacks of all time. Although the Italian remains No 1 and the best player in the world based on his performances over the past year, on the eve of Wimbledon Alcaraz is the player to beat.
Since Roland Garros, the momentum and good vibes surrounding the champion have only increased. He followed his three-day interlude in Ibiza by winning at Queen’s Club for a second time. While he still considers clay his favourite surface, the 22-year-old’s grass record is astounding. He has amassed 29 wins and three defeats, winning 25 of his past 26 matches on the surface. He has more grass-court titles – four – than losses. He heads into Wimbledon as the clear favourite and will attempt to become the fifth man in the Open era to win the singles title three times in a row.
It will take time for Sinner, who is nine months older, to come to terms with the French Open defeat, which was still playing on his mind when he lost in the second round of the Halle Open last week to Alexander Bublik. But another grand slam tournament also provides him with an opportunity to forge ahead with fresh motivation. Alcaraz and Sinner have shared the past six grand slam titles, shutting out the rest of the field and until there is a significant shift, it is difficult to choose the rest of the field over these two players.
Novak Djokovic, however, continues to relish the challenge of trying to disrupt the youngsters. At the age of 38 he has clearly been third-best player at the grand slams this year, reaching two semi-finals, with victories over Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. On grass, where the seven-time Wimbledon champion’s understanding of the surface is second to none and the faster conditions are more helpful to his ageing body, Wimbledon has always represented his biggest opportunity of becoming the oldest slam champion in the Open era.
It is clear that Jack Draper will command the most attention at the beginning. The Briton’s past year has been remarkable, with the 23-year-old rising from No 40 to No 4, winning his first Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells and reaching his first slam semi-final at the US Open. Draper has everything he could possibly want to make a deep run on the grass – a well-rounded, increasingly complete game and his destructive lefty serve and forehand are well-suited to the fast surface.
While most British players have some sort of early breakthrough at Wimbledon, Draper, at 23, has never passed the second round and his success has come on foreign shores. He has never experienced the pressure and attention that comes with being a top home player and genuine contender on Centre Court. In the long run, Draper has the character and single-minded focus to handle these situations and produce his best tennis but the coming week will be a fascinating test of his character and current readiness for these moments.
The women’s draw is shrouded in even more uncertainty. Aryna Sabalenka has clearly established herself as the top player but, like Sinner, she arrives at Wimbledon with her ego bruised after her dramatic three-set defeat to Coco Gauff in the French Open final.
Her tactless comments after the defeat, and the backlash they generated, only made things even more difficult for her. The Belarusian remains the favourite to win a first Wimbledon title, where the grass aids her ultra-offensive shotmaking.
Beyond Sabalenka, there is even less clarity. Gauff has solidified herself as a true championship player by winning her second slam in Paris. However, despite her breakthrough run coming at Wimbledon, when she reached the fourth round from qualifying on her slam debut as a 15-year-old, the American, now 21, has struggled to find her best on grass.
Iga Swiatek’s difficulties on grass are similarly well established but, with every year, the former world No 1 does appear to grow more comfortable. After an extremely difficult period on court this year, she did leave Roland Garros with her head held high despite her dominance in Paris coming to an end after her semi-final loss to Sabalenka.
As is often the case, contenders could come from anywhere. Five months on from her stunning triumph at the Australian Open, Madison Keys remains effective both on grass and at slams. Mirra Andreeva’s improved serve should make her even more dangerous this year.
In a sport where the margins are so tight, and there are so many players capable of performing at a high level on their day, this Wimbledon may well be decided by whoever truly rises to the occasion when they most need to.
