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The most promising stretch the Carolina Panthers have had in years happened over three games late last season. They lost every one of those games.
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For a team like the Panthers, who have repeatedly followed up hitting rock bottom by finding an even lower place, wins are preferred to show progress but not mandatory. For three games, the Panthers put a scare into some of the NFL’s best teams, including both Super Bowl participants. They could have won each game.
In Week 12, they tied the Kansas City Chiefs with less than two minutes left. The Chiefs drove for a game-winning field goal after that, as they usually do, but the Panthers were close to knocking off a Chiefs team that won 15 of its first 16 games and an AFC title.
The next week, the Panthers took a 23-20 lead over the eventual NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 30 seconds left. The Panthers caught every bad break after that, allowing a game-tying field goal as regulation expired, fumbling in overtime after they were in field goal range and then losing in overtime. But they were close.
The Philadelphia Eagles lost one game after September last season, but trailed the Panthers at home to start the fourth quarter of a Week 14 game. The Eagles escaped with a 22-16 win, getting two key fourth-down stops in their own territory in the fourth quarter, but a team that dominated Super Bowl LIX was in real danger of dropping a game to the Panthers at home.
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The losses stung, as they all do. But given where the Panthers were just a few months earlier, it was a massive step forward.
On Sept. 16, a day after the Panthers fell to 0-2 with their second straight game failing to gain 200 yards of offense, they benched quarterback Bryce Young. It seemed like a depressing admission that picking Young — combined with the ridiculous amount of players and picks traded to get that 2023 first overall pick to take him — was a mistake that would set the franchise back for a long time. Everyone wondered if the Panthers would trade Young, though they said they never considered it. It seemed like a difficult place for the team and player to bounce back from. At that moment, Young looked like a bust of epic proportions.
Going from that nadir to being competitive against good teams by late November was invigorating. Young got another shot to start in Week 8 and looked like a new player. He might not have played to the level you’d dream of for a first overall pick, but he was much better. By the time he put up 251 yards and three touchdowns (one of which he finished with a confident look-away celebration with the ball in the air) in a season-ending win at the Atlanta Falcons, it seemed like a new world from the depressing low of benching a first overall pick two weeks into the season.
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“I think we’ve got our QB here,” Panthers owner David Tepper told NFL Media’s Cameron Wolfe after that win.
The Panthers still have a long way to go. The defense gave up more points than any other team in NFL history and, while there were some offseason fixes, it’ll take at least another offseason to get it to a respectable level. Young made strides but he’ll need to show more improvement to live up to what the Panthers invested in him. Drafting receiver Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall should help Young.
Nobody should be confusing the Panthers with a contender just because they played better late in the season with an emerging quarterback. But there’s hope. It has been a while since that was the case.
Offseason grade
The Panthers’ rebuild isn’t easy, especially considering all the picks given up to draft Bryce Young. They did pretty well to make improvements this offseason. Defense, and particularly the run defense, was the focus of free agency. Safety Tre’von Moehrig, defensive tackles Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown, pass rusher Patrick Jones and linebacker Christian Rozeboom were signed. That talent infusion was needed. The Panthers passed on defense to pick receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round of the draft, and it’s hard to criticize them for taking the best player available at a position of need. The Panthers took defensive ends Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen in the second and third rounds, and if just one of them pays off the defense, they will benefit greatly. It was a productive offseason and a good start to the undertaking of building an NFC South contender.
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Grade: B+
Quarterback report
Bryce Young’s final 10 games, after he reclaimed the starting job, were certainly promising. He threw for 2,104 yards, 15 touchdowns, six interceptions, an 88.9 passer rating and had moments in which he looked like a viable starting NFL quarterback. The danger is believing he has arrived just because he surpassed the very low bar set he set through his first 18 NFL starts. However, it was night and day from the poor start to career.
“Yeah, Bryce is our quarterback,” Panthers head coach Dave Canales said after a Week 18 win. “I’m so proud of the way that he just took the challenge, and he just grew every week. He just took new lessons, new things applied it to his game, was engaged, challenging the guys, the whole thing.”
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The Panthers are only favored in three games this season — and they haven’t won a game as a favorite since Sept. 23, 2021. Bryce Young showed some improvement in his second season, but Carolina (+300 to make postseason at BetMGM) will need a lot more to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. The Panthers have gone under their win total in six of the past seven seasons.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Bryce Young looked like a lost cause in his rookie season and he was benched early in his sophomore campaign, but things took a positive turn down the stretch last year. Young posted a 92.3 quarterback rating and 6.9 YPA over his final seven starts, solid numbers when you consider how thin the Panthers were at receiver. Young also tacked on five rushing touchdowns, making him the QB6 for this period. Young seems to be meshing with offensive mind Dave Canales, and touted rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan has been added to the passing game. Young deserves sleeper consideration in 2025.”
Stat to remember
The Panthers’ defense had the worst success rate allowed per pass play last season. They also had the worst success rate allowed per run play. Yes, by one telling metric the Panthers had the worst run defense and the worst pass defense in the NFL last season. That’s how you allow 534 points, which set the NFL’s single-season record. They allowed 14.6 more yards per game than any other team last season, and a staggering 38.4 more rushing yards per game than the NFL’s second-worst run defense. They gave up 5.2 yards per rush, and no other team was worse than 4.9. The 105.4 passer rating allowed was the worst in the NFL. It wasn’t just a bad defense. It was the worst in the NFL by a mile and one of the worst in history. The hope for the Panthers is the return of $96 million defensive tackle Derrick Brown after he missed all but one game last season due to a knee injury, the emergence of cornerback Jaycee Horn coming off his first Pro Bowl season and an influx of new talent. The Panthers are projected to have at least four new starters on defense and have many as six as they look for some respectability on that side of the ball.
Burning question
How good is Bryce Young’s supporting cast?
Clearly, the Panthers liked receiver Tetairoa McMillan to take him with the eighth overall pick.
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“I think he has really good play speed,” Panthers general manager Dan Morgan said. “I think the thing that pops off the tape about Tet is how smooth he is, his body control, his ability to adjust to all types of throws, his catch radius and his hands are elite. He catches everything outside his frame and he can win the jump ball down the field and in the end zone.”
The Panthers used their first-round draft pick on wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, which adds a needed weapon for emerging QB Bryce Young. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
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All of a sudden, the Panthers’ offense is pretty fun. Chuba Hubbard rushed for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns in a nice breakout season, and the Panthers signed Rico Dowdle to back him up. Dowdle had 1,079 yards for the Cowboys last season. McMillan will be the Panthers’ alpha receiver and they also have 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette, still-productive veteran Adam Thielen, promising 2024 rookie Jalen Coker and speedy 2025 sixth-round pick Jimmy Horn Jr. Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, a fourth-round pick last year, had just 342 yards as a rookie but has upside. The Panthers have some exciting playmakers.
Best-case scenario
Bryce Young responded so well after being benched, it’s OK to dream about him being way better in his third season. He was the first overall pick for a reason, and he has plenty of talent around him. The defense probably isn’t going to be good enough, but Derrick Brown’s return and a bunch of new starters could help. If the defense is average and the offense keeps the momentum going from late last season, perhaps the Panthers can take enough shootouts to post their first winning season since 2017, when Cam Newton was still quarterback. Panthers fans would sign up for that.
Nightmare scenario
The Panthers should be excited about Bryce Young’s improvement in the second half of last season. But a 10-game sample of average quarterback play doesn’t eliminate all questions. As much as we think Young’s next step will be a positive one, what if it’s not? It’s a little scary because the Panthers’ future is so closely tied to his success. If Young isn’t better, we know the Panthers’ defense is very unlikely to help much. It’s very much on the table for the Panthers to take a step back to the 2-15 team we saw two seasons ago — four of the Panthers’ five wins last season were either by three or fewer points or in overtime, and those games could have easily gone the other way — and with renewed questions about Young’s future. That would be beyond disheartening for a franchise that has lost double-digit games six straight seasons.
The crystal ball says
The Panthers are another offseason away from being a playoff contender. Another round of adding talent to the defense is necessary. In the meantime, the Panthers should be surprisingly fun to watch. They’re going to score plenty of points and give up a boatload of them, too. And that’s OK. The Panthers shouldn’t have visions of a playoff berth this season, just growth from young players and Bryce Young in particular. If that happens with a bunch of 38-35 losses, the Panthers can go into next offseason thinking they’re one big defensive draft and some key free agent additions away from competing in the NFC South. Considering where the franchise was the day Young was benched last year, that’s some serious progress.
