Whether tweaks to the College Football Playoff selection process will be enough to stave off a switch to an automatic qualifier-heavy model will be at the heart of discussions this week in Asheville, North Carolina, when 10 conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director meet.
The meetings, which begin Tuesday and run until Wednesday afternoon, are expected to center on the strength of schedule component of the selection process that has become a hot topic in the aftermath of conference meetings in May. The SEC, in particular, has been outspoken about the need to revamp a process it believes did not properly account for its conference prowess last season when it left out Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina from the 12-team field. It even distributed a seven-page memo entitled “A Regular Season Gauntlet” to assembled media members after its spring meetings last month in Florida.
In the aftermath of the cacophony of comments from SEC leaders questioning the need for a selection committee altogether, including from former member Scott Stricklin, CFP executive director Rich Clark will present data on strength of schedule and discuss possible tweaks to the SOS metric, sources familiar with the situation told CBS Sports.
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What those tweaks might be and how SEC commissioner Greg Sankey receives them could have a major impact on the future of the CFP.
Battle brewing between Big Ten, SEC?
Since negotiating control over the future of the CFP format and a bigger cut of the money (29% to each conference), the Big Ten and SEC have largely been in lockstep on the major issues. Sankey and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti developed a strong working relationship — one Sankey never had with Petitti’s predecessor, Kevin Warren — and brought the two conferences closer together with historic joint meetings in Nashville and New Orleans over the last eight months.
Those shared sensibilities include momentum behind the Big Ten’s preferred revamping of the playoff to a model that would award four automatic bids each to the Big Ten and SEC, two each to the ACC and Big 12, one to the top Group of 6 team and the remainder to at-large teams. The SEC had seemingly rallied around the idea, with Sankey saying last month the conference was “interested but not committed.” That changed after significant backlash from the conference’s football coaches, leading multiple SEC sources to predict that the conference would stick with eight conference games and side with the ACC and Big 12’s preferred 5+11 model, which awards five automatic bids to conference champions and the rest to the top 11 teams.
The SEC appears open to continuing with a selection committee but one that tweaks the currently used metrics and weighs the strength of schedule more heavily than it has in the past. Such a development wouldn’t require a move to an AQ-heavy format. The key, for SEC leaders, is that they want to be rewarded for how difficult they believe it is to win in the conference.
“The human element is great, but there’s got to be some more clearly defined metrics,” Mississippi State AD Zac Selmon recently told CBS Sports. “I’ve worked in different conferences before — two different power conferences (ACC, Big 12) — and when you look at the depth from top to bottom of our league, it’s night and day compared to what other people say.”
Interestingly, the SOS metrics often favored the SEC over the committee’s rankings last season. The conference usually had the highest-ranked one-, two- and three-loss teams. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), one of the metrics cited in the SEC’s gauntlet memo, preliminary 2025 season SOS rankings give the SEC the entire top 10 of toughest schedules.
“Adding any new data points in is not going to necessarily cure what’s been a pretty dominant thought (process),” a Big Ten source said. “It’s always going to come back to this subjective mindset.”
The SEC’s regular season gauntlet memo signaled to Big Ten leaders that the conference just wants a formula that proclaims it is the best, rather than any real changes. The Big Ten is more convinced than ever that more AQs are the only way to fix the problems, not a tweaked SOS metric, according to Big Ten sources with direct knowledge of the situation. At the heart of the Big Ten’s argument, they say, is the belief that more automatic qualifiers (and a potential play-in championship weekend) would keep more program fanbases invested later into the season, which ultimately leads to better fan attendance and television ratings.
“In a model where it’s 5-11, there’s no amount of data you can pour through to figure out who’s better between the fourth-place Big Ten team, the fourth-place SEC team and the second-place Big 12 team,” said a Big Ten source. “I recognize people think there are solutions. We’ve studied it a whole lot and there’s not a whole lot that you can do to tweak it.”
Part of the issue is the unequal amount of conference games played within the Power Four conferences. The Big Ten and Big 12 play nine conference games while the ACC and SEC play eight. Beyond that, there is the concern about the reliance on playing FCS opponents with some pushing for a minimum of 10 games against Power Four opponents.
For the upcoming 2025 season, here is how each conference’s schedule breaks down.
The 8 vs. 9 conference games debate is expected to be a prominent part of this week’s discussions. The SEC has essentially stated that it wants to learn more about the future of the playoff format before making a decision on whether to expand to nine games. The Big Ten is especially uninterested in a 5+11 format if the SEC sticks to eight conference games, according to sources. The SEC is aware of that, and there are some within the conference that believe it is even less likely to move to nine conference games and give in to what the Big Ten wants. Based on its memo that showed it ranks No. 1 in a number of metrics, including SOS and strength of record (SOR) over the last decade, the SEC already believes its scheduling is tough enough with eight games.
Should the SEC opt to stick with eight conference games as the Big Ten remains at nine, the widely-speculated scheduling of a Big Ten-SEC showcase pitting all 16 SEC teams against a Big Ten rival is likely off the table, a Big Ten source said. “That wouldn’t make sense for our guys to add another tough game.”
Meanwhile, the Big Ten is preparing to battle the SEC in the boardroom should the conference push its strength-of-schedule argument, according to sources. The Big Ten has been busy studying metrics and comparing its conference to the SEC’s resume. For instance, the SEC played more non-power opponents last season than any other Power Four conference. Additionally, Texas was the only SEC team not to schedule an FCS opponent. Nine of 18 Big Ten teams did not play an FCS opponent.
In 2025, only six Power Four schools will play 10 Power Four games and zero FCS games: Colorado, Michigan, Stanford, UCLA, USC and Wisconsin.
The forgotten compromise
In March 2024, a different multi-AQ model for a 14-team College Football Playoff was presented and supported by the Big Ten and SEC, but it was immediately rejected by the other major conferences.
In hindsight, the format might have been the perfect compromise to settle the debate between the two leading models (4 AQs; 5+11) at the center of discussions this week.
The model socialized 15 months ago was a 14-team playoff that would have awarded three automatic bids each to the Big Ten and SEC and two apiece to the ACC and Big 12. The field would be filled with the highest-ranked Group of 6 champion and three at-large selections.
Had the ACC and Big 12 not killed the proposal in the media, that model likely would have been pushed forward and adopted starting with the 2026 season, a source involved in the discussions said. Instead, the discontent from the ACC and Big 12 led to more concepts, and the voices with the voting power — Big Ten and SEC — countered with a 4-4-2-2-1-3 format in a 16-team field.
A fast-approaching deadline
After two years of debate, this week is all shaping up for an interesting showdown between the two most powerful conferences, though with some interesting real-world dynamics affecting the atmosphere. ACC commissioner Jim Phillips will lead the meetings and Big Ten commissioner Petitti will attend virtually due to a surgical procedure on his hip earlier this month, sources said.
The Big Ten and SEC’s differences won’t be resolved this week, as no major format changes are expected to occur, but it’ll be an early indicator of whether the Big Ten and SEC are still moving forward together in tandem or if a split is inevitable. The two have the power to force a format change on their wishes alone based on their interpretation of the most recent CFP contract, but if the SEC is fully off the AQ model, it could leave the Big Ten on an island.
And if that’s the result coming out of the North Carolina meetings, the likelihood of the 12-team format with straight seeding continuing in 2026 increases. The deadline to make a decision for the 2026 season is Dec. 1, so there will be more meetings and plenty of time for discussion, but a stalemate between the Power 2 stalls what once felt like a near-inevitable expansion to a 16-team playoff.
