After a preseason dominated by overs, Week 1 of the NFL season was dominated by unders. Week 1 saw unders go 13-3 (81%) in the 16-game slate, but there will be both a market correction in the numbers and improved play on the field, so blindly backing a direction will not work in the long run. Instead, finding situational closing line value is still of the upmost importance.
A few stats I did find relevant from Week 1 — prior to Monday Night Football — was that the average starting field position was the 34-yard line (up from the 29-yard line last season), field goal success rate was 86.4% (perfectly league average from a season ago) and yet the average points per team was a putrid 20.3. These metrics actually lend themselves to increased scoring in the coming weeks.
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Here are some spots I think close ahead of the Week 2 NFL market and are worth early bets this week.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5, 45)
This is the first spot I am going to back an over on the Week 2 NFL card. Baltimore’s offense was incredibly dominant against the Buffalo Bills, scoring 40 points before letting its lead slip in the final five minutes of the game.
On the Browns side, I am looking to back overs as long as Joe Flacco is starting at quarterback; Flacco attempted 45 passes while Cleveland’s running backs had a combined 21 carries. I am also looking to improved special teams play from the Browns, as their two missed field goals cost them the game and will likely be a point of emphasis this week in practice.
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Ravens star safety Kyle Hamilton is also dealing with a hand injury. He briefly left the game on Sunday night and reports from the field were that he went into the locker room to get X-rays, and returned minutes later with his fingers heavily taped. We will find more in the coming days, and I expect he is likely dealing with a fracture in his hand but will play through it. If Hamilton’s ability to intercept Flacco or tackle opposing WRs is at all impacted, the chance for the Browns to capitalize slightly increases.
Look for this total to creep up between now and kickoff.
Pick: Browns-Ravens Over 45
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 45.5)
Minnesota’s comeback on Monday Night Football put a bow on top of a crazy Week 1. Just 24 hours after the Ravens blew a 99% chance to win game, the Vikings made their own comeback that had a win probability of 5.8% near the start of the fourth quarter. There was a lot of variance that went into this Vikings comeback, and the market will begin to price that in.
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Minnesota got the gift of a Bears missed field goal, had a successful late 2-point conversion and got a pass interference to go their way when the Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor actually slipped himself.
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Meanwhile, the Falcons were on the wrong end of variance in their game. Baker Mayfield led the Bucs on a come-from-behind fourth-quarter drive in which the chunk plays were poorly timed defensive penalties, and veteran Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo missed a kick and chance to send the game into overtime. The Falcons offense was consistently able to move the ball and played mistake free, with zero turnovers. That is critical to forecasting future success.
Despite this being a road game for the Falcons, they are a dome team traveling to an opposing dome, so no weather will impact the away setting. Atlanta as has a one-day rest advantage, and get the Vikings traveling home from their battle in Chicago, somewhat neutralizing the travel disparity. This bet having closing line value largely hinges on the health of Falcons star WR Drake London, who suffered a shoulder sprain in the fourth quarter.
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As practice reports emerge and if he looks to be suiting up, this line should close closer to 4. I like the Falcons against the spread with a sprinkle on the money line as well.
Pick: Falcons +5.5, ML +190
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 41.5) at New Orleans Saints
This is a bet on based on asymmetric risk.
The 49ers are one game into the season and already back to being a team ravaged by injuries. George Kittle is confirmed out for this game, while QB Brock Purdy and WR Jauan Jennings remain questionable. Purdy is the major question mark here, as his absence would promote Mac Jones to starter.
The news we have now is that Purdy, dealing with toe and shoulder injuries, and will see how the practice goes in order to determine if he will play. If Purdy plays, this number will go back to -6, and with Jennings it can go to -6.5. If Purdy is out, I anticipate this closes closer to -3.5. The value of the line movement on either side of the number indicate that Purdy news is more advantageous to him playing than it is risky to him not playing. The look ahead line was -7 before the news broke, so this line movement is already impacted further than the Kittle news alone suggests, and prices Purdy to be 50-50.
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Jones — once thought to be the apple of Kyle Shanahan’s eye in the 2021 NFL Draft — now has multiple seasons under his belt, 49 career starts, and is back with Shanahan — who has proven to be successful with a litany of starting QBs. I trust the system and the experience for the 49ers to still handle the Saints.
Despite New Orleans QB Spencer Rattler looking average in Week 1 against the Cardinals, he faces another class of defense and scheme with San Francisco’s stop unit. Look for future Hall of Famers Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to be game wreckers when called upon.
Pick: 49ers -4.5
