What could go wrong? That’s the question you’re asking right before you click the draft button in Round 1. You want to know how this player — this potential stud — is going to fail.
Well, let’s find out.
I’m not a Debbie Downer, but that’s the role I’m going to play here. We’re going to make the bust case for every Round 1 player based on their CBS Sports average draft position in a PPR league following the second week of preseason action. And we’re going to try and do this without factoring in injuries, although for some players, that’s hard to avoid.
Now, I’m not expecting all of these players to be busts since most of them are ranked in my first round. But maybe the reasoning on why they could fail will change your perspective, and you might pivot to a different player with less concerns.
CBS Sports Round 1 ADP
1. Ja’Marr Chase
Why he’ll be a bust: It’s hard to make a case against Chase that doesn’t include an injury for him or Joe Burrow, and we hope that doesn’t happen to either player. Chase was amazing last season when he won the Triple Crown with the most receptions (127), yards (1,708), and touchdowns (17), and he also led the NFL in targets (175). But history isn’t on his side since the last player to repeat as the No. 1 Fantasy receiver in consecutive seasons was Antonio Brown in 2016-17, and we’ve seen other elite guys fail in recent years like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and Davante Adams. Chase also might have the best No. 2 receiver on his own team in Tee Higgins, who is a constant threat to steal production.
Why he won’t: Chase isn’t without flaws, but he’s the toughest player to bet against if he and Burrow stay healthy. The Bengals defense should be near the bottom of the NFL once again, meaning plenty of passes from Burrow to Chase. He’s the easy choice for me at No. 1 overall in any PPR or half-PPR league.
2. Bijan Robinson
Why he’ll be a bust: We love that Robinson’s workload spiked to close last season when he averaged 23.9 total touches per game in his final 11 outings compared to 17.2 total touches per game in the first six games of the year. What if the Falcons revert back to that to open 2025 to make sure Robinson is fresh? And in three games with Michael Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback to close the year, Robinson only had seven catches for 20 yards on 12 targets. That’s elite? Robinson was saved by six rushing touchdowns over that span, but otherwise, he had eight rushing touchdowns in his first 14 games. The Falcons also lost center Drew Dalman in free agency to the Bears.
Why he won’t: Robinson averaged 22.5 PPR points per game in his final eight outings. That was better than what Saquon Barkley (22.2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (21.4) did last season, and a big reason for Robinson’s strong ending was his workload, which should continue this season. Robinson was one of three running backs last year with at least 60 catches, and only Barkley (2,283), Derrick Henry (2,114), and Gibbs (1,929) had more total yards than Robinson (1,887). He also tied for fifth with 14 rushing touchdowns. There’s a lot to love about Robinson in 2025, and he’s my No. 1 running back in all formats.
3. Saquon Barkley
Why he’ll be a bust: Barkley just had 436 carries and 482 total touches in 2024 in helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl, and that’s a lot of work for a 28-year-old running back. Additionally, the history of 2,000-yard rushers isn’t great the following season. Of the previous eight to accomplish this feat, all of them declined in production by at least 562 rushing yards, with six of them dropping 871 rushing yards or more. Landon Dickerson, a Pro Bowl left guard, is dealing with a meniscus injury in his right knee. And the Tush Push is still here, which limits Barkley’s touchdown potential.
Why he won’t: Dickerson isn’t expected to have a lengthy absence, and Barkley will once again play behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. We could see a spike in his reception total from the 33 catches he had in 2024, now that Kellen Moore is gone as the offensive coordinator, given Moore’s history of limiting running backs in the passing game. And while Barkley could lose more than 500 rushing yards, given the history of 2,000-yard rushers, everyone would take a running back of his potential if he still had the chance for close to 1,500 rushing yards and 2,000 total yards if he stays healthy.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs
Why he’ll be a bust: We all know how Gibbs finished last season when he averaged a whopping 31.5 PPR points in his final four games. But that was with David Montgomery suffering a knee injury in Week 15 and then missing the final three outings of the regular season. In 13 healthy games with Montgomery, Gibbs only averaged 18.2 PPR points, and Montgomery is healthy to open the season. The Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and two offensive linemen are gone, with center Frank Ragnow and guard Kevin Zeitler.
Why he won’t: Montgomery has missed three games in each of the past two years and parts of others, which allows Gibbs to play at a Superhero level when he’s a solo act. And while his production isn’t as dominant when Montgomery is healthy, his 18.2 PPR points per game with Montgomery would have still been No. 6 among running backs last year, which is an excellent floor. Gibbs also has exactly 52 receptions in each of his first two seasons, and the Lions could use him even more in the passing game in 2025.
5. Justin Jefferson
Why he’ll be a bust: We aren’t going to focus on injuries, but Jefferson is just working his way back from a hamstring injury he sustained July 24. That’s a lot of missed practice time to get on the same page with quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie campaign in 2024 due to a knee injury. Jefferson just had his worst season since his rookie year in 2020, when he averaged 18.7 PPR points per game. And his 9.1 targets per game were his worst since his rookie season.
Why he won’t: The Vikings were being cautious with Jefferson’s hamstring injury, and he should be ready for Week 1. He should also benefit with Jordan Addison suspended for the first three games of the season, which means potentially increased targets from McCarthy. And while McCarthy is unproven, which could be a problem for Jefferson, we had similar doubts about Sam Darnold taking over as Minnesota’s quarterback in 2024, and that worked out fine. Kevin O’Connell knows how to get Jefferson the ball, and he should continue to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in Fantasy and reality.
6. CeeDee Lamb
Why he’ll be a bust: In 2023, Lamb averaged 23.7 PPR points per game as the No. 1 Fantasy receiver. In every other year of his career, he’s been at 17.7 PPR points or less. Let’s hope that the 2023 campaign wasn’t just an outlier, and he can get back to that level of production with Dak Prescott (hamstring), who missed nine games in 2024. The addition of George Pickens could be a problem since he’s a huge upgrade over Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert, who were the secondary receivers opposite Lamb the past two years.
Why he won’t: Pickens is a threat, but the Cowboys should be among the league leaders in pass attempts if Prescott is healthy, since Dallas could have an abysmal running game, meaning there should be targets for everyone. Prescott seems to be 100 percent back, and we’ve seen plenty of highlights from Lamb in training camp. And Lamb is ready to put on a show, as he said in July, “I feel like the league knows what happens when I’m healthy and I have Dak for a whole season. But if you don’t, I will happily show you what it’s going to be like this year.” We could see 2023 repeat itself if everyone is healthy.
7. Derrick Henry
Why he’ll be a bust: He’s 31. He’s 31. He’s 31. Did I mention he’s 31? It’s hard to bet against Henry, who just ran for 1,921 yards in 2024, which is the most ever for a running back at age 30. The most yards for a running back at age 31 is Curtis Martin with 1,697 in 2004, so Henry could lose some production and still be extremely productive. He averaged a career-best 5.9 yards per carry in 2024, and his 18 total touchdowns matched his career high. Will he be able to replicate those numbers again? He also had just 19 receptions, which was his lowest total since 2021.
Why he won’t: I’m tired of betting against Henry, and he continues to give Father Time a brutal stiff arm since he’s not ready to slow down. It will happen eventually, but Henry was exceptional in Year 1 with the Ravens in 2024 and should be dominant again. Baltimore’s projected win total is 11.5, and Henry has always been more successful in wins than when his teams are trailing, given his lack of work in the passing game. And he has the highest rushing touchdown prop for the season at 13.5, which means Las Vegas expects Henry to find the end zone often again in 2025.
8. Christian McCaffrey
Why he’ll be a bust: Well … we all remember what happened with him in 2024. It started with an Achilles injury that led to a knee injury that led to him becoming a Greek tragedy for Fantasy managers, and he played just four games. He’s 29, and he’s had just two seasons in his past five where he’s played more than seven games. I know I said injuries weren’t going to be a part of this, but that’s really the only argument against McCaffrey. When healthy, he’s been the best running back in Fantasy and potentially reality as well.
Why he won’t: Right now, he’s healthy, and I’d love for the 49ers to put him in bubble wrap until Week 1. The irony is every other San Francisco running back has been hurt in training camp, although Isaac Guerendo (shoulder) returned to practice this week. Jordan James (finger) remains out, and Patrick Taylor (shoulder) was just placed on injured reserve. The 49ers might need McCaffrey to do it all with Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Jauan Jennings (calf) injured, and Deebo Samuel is no longer on the roster. McCaffrey averaged 24.5 PPR points per game in 2023, and he could be the No. 1 Fantasy skill player if he stays healthy in 2025.
9. De’Von Achane
Why he’ll be a bust: This is another situation where injury matters, but not just for Achane, who is currently dealing with a calf problem. We hope he’s ready for Week 1, and he could be the No. 1 running back in PPR. But he also needs a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, and it was staggering the stats for Achane with and without his quarterback in 2024. When Tagovailoa was healthy for the majority of 11 games, Achane averaged 22.6 PPR points per game, which is elite. But in the six games without Tagovailoa, who dealt with concussion and hip injuries, Achane averaged just 8.6 PPR points per game.
Why he won’t: Achane led all running backs in receptions (78) and receiving yards (592) last season, and he tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (six). He was also second in targets among running backs (87), and he should remain a significant factor in the passing game with Jonnu Smith gone. Hopefully, if Tagovailoa suffers an injury again this season, either Zach Wilson or Quinn Ewers will keep Achane playing at a high level. Hopefully, Achane will be fine with this calf injury. As of now, I wouldn’t draft Achane in Round 1 because he’s hurt, but he could finish as a top-three running back if he plays the majority of the season, along with a healthy Tagovailoa.
10. Ashton Jeanty
Why he’ll be a bust: Did you see the first preseason game against Seattle? I mean, minus-1 yard on three carries? He’s going to stink. I’m kidding, of course, but we might have to be a little concerned about his workload from college. He just had 374 carries and 23 catches in 14 games in 2024 at Boise State, and hopefully that’s not an issue. We also might have to keep expectations in check for the rookie. In 2023, Robinson let us down in Atlanta, mostly due to Arthur Smith. And last year, Marvin Harrison Jr. was a bust. Will Jeanty follow suit?
Why he won’t: Aside from the workload concerns, there’s not much to worry about with Jeanty. Maybe the offensive line in Las Vegas isn’t the best, but the Raiders should be middle of the pack with that unit, which is fine. He should thrive in Chip Kelly’s offense, and he has little competition for touches, with Raheem Mostert the likely backup. Jeanty will hopefully live up to the hype in his rookie campaign, and he should be a league-winning running back with a pick in the back end of the first round.
11. Malik Nabers
Why he’ll be a bust: Nabers returned to practice Tuesday, but he’s dealing with toe, shoulder, and back injuries. The toe injury seems to be the most problematic, but hopefully it doesn’t cause Nabers to miss any games. We also have to be concerned about Nabers connecting well with Russell Wilson or Jaxson Dart, especially the latter if he starts any games as a rookie. Hopefully, we don’t get a sophomore slump for Nabers, who averaged 18.2 PPR points per game as a rookie in 2024.
Why he won’t: Nabers has the chance to lead the NFL in targets, and he averaged the most targets per game in 2024 at 11.3. Wilson and Dart are upgrades over the Giants quarterbacks Nabers had last season with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle, and Wilson could help Nabers perform at a higher level with more production down the field. I would draft Nico Collins ahead of Nabers, but Nabers should be considered a top-five Fantasy receiver worth drafting in Round 1.
12. Josh Jacobs
Why he’ll be a bust: This is the only place where I’ve seen Jacobs with an ADP in Round 1, and I would consider him a bust in this spot. He’s being drafted ahead of receivers like Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Drake London, which is a mistake. And you can argue that Jacobs belongs with the Round 2 running backs of Kyren Williams, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Taylor, and Chase Brown, and all of them have an ADP of No. 19 overall or later. I like Jacobs, who averaged 17.2 PPR points per game in 2024, but that made him the No. 7 running back behind Barkley, Gibbs, Robinson, Henry, Alvin Kamara, Achane, and Taylor.
Why he won’t: Jacobs isn’t far from a first-round pick in my rankings at No. 17 overall, but I can’t draft him ahead of those receivers. MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) is hurt, so Jacobs doesn’t have significant competition for touches. And the Packers offense should improve this year with Jordan Love healthy after he dealt with knee and groin injuries in 2024. Jacobs also has a proven track record since he topped 1,600 yards from scrimmage in two of his last three seasons and scored 12 or more touchdowns in three of the past five years. He’s also averaged 45 catches over the past four seasons. I don’t want to call Jacobs a bust, but he should not be drafted in Round 1. Instead, target him in the middle of Round 2, and you’ll be thrilled to get him on your roster.
